12-11-2021, 01:42 PM
(12-11-2021, 12:03 PM)EricL Wrote:I trim winners slowly. It reduces the remorse if I mistime it.(12-11-2021, 11:52 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.SPY is up about 27-28% YTD I believe. DOW is less. NAS up maybe 23%? Your port has that risk vs reward thing I mentioned and very much desire. Solid div growth and good balance sheets that will survive crisis. Currently 4-5 stocks comprise about 25% of the market weighted SPY and about 50% of the NAS which is more than a little frightening IMO. It scares me because I know the LT average total return for stocks has been 8-10% since forever. I am not looking forward to reverting to the mean but it will surely happen. Below average investors are very happy right now because it is hard to fail.
I think we are smart to prepare ourselves for average times. For a very long time I recommended young investors go all in on SPY with a NAS or Russell 2K kicker and close your eyes. That will be good advice again someday but I'm not so sure it is right now. To my knowledge five stocks have never dominated the indexes to this degree. Is that the new normal forever? I don't know.
AAPL and MSFT have a combined market cap of $5.5T. It's getting really difficult to resist trimming them again, as that has been the wrong move every time I've done it...