12-09-2021, 02:46 PM
(12-09-2021, 01:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(12-09-2021, 01:41 PM)Kerim Wrote: I'm not sure how much "safer" this one can get -- but we'll find out!The declining revenue seems to be ignored as if it is guaranteed to go away sometime soon. Maybe it will? Falling SP and rising dividends are the "Venus Fly Trap" to dividend investors every time. I don't need to list tickers or sector examples because we have all owned them or still do. I'll be fine with hearing you guys saying I told you so if this is the bottom. DG asked for an opinion and a few of us offered one.
I've got no ill-will about this discussion at all! Investing is inherently risky, and only hindsight offers concrete assurance.
That said, can you offer more thoughts as to why exactly you think its revues will decline terminally? EPS data before the end of 2019 is hard to factor because of the merger, so we don't have a lot of "pure" data to work with. But VIAC earned $3.86 per share in 2020, and is on target to meet or exceed that by a bit for 2021. It is still working through the merger, and is still shaking off the Archegos debacle. But its streaming subscriber numbers are on the rise and those big issues are in the rear view mirror. Clearly, none of this is a case for gangbusters performance or EPS growth going forward. But why exactly are folks so convinced that earnings are going to decline from here? At 6 or 7 times earnings and a well-covered dividend, it doesn't take much upside to do well.
I get that most people on the thread (and in the market, apparently) agree with you -- otherwise it wouldn't be so cheap. But I clearly need a deeper understanding.
Fenders, earlier in the thread you mentioned projections for negative revenue growth for VIAC -- can you point me to this?