12-08-2021, 07:23 AM
(12-08-2021, 07:11 AM)fenders53 Wrote: The state of the market probably should play a role in your decision when you approach 62. The decision might be easy if AAPL and/or GOOGL have become 30% over or undervalued at that time. It sounds lke you are way up in those stocks, but I am still not selling them at a deep discount just because the market dipped. My first few years of IRA draws are sitting in cash to avoid problems like this the best I can.
That's a good point though it still comes down to expected performance going forward. But if I think they have had their "runs" and are likely to show reduced gains going forward then I can't rely on prior years. The old "prior returns are no guarantee of future returns" saying. Though I always think this should carry a coda, "Yes but the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior." One reason why management change is so important, and so tough to assess - how many people saw Nadella coming?
How much cash I have remaining on hand will factor in as well. My plan is stock sales first, cash only if the market - or at least AAPL and GOOGL - are trading low. If I still have a chunk of cash left at 62, delaying is an easy call - my returns on cash are nothing - even using rolling CDS, which I do now (have used MMs), rates are well below even average inflation, let alone what's happening today.