10-02-2021, 07:32 PM
(10-02-2021, 05:18 PM)fenders53 Wrote: It is old and persistent news that has cut BTI share price in half during about the best five year run in our investing lifetime. What I think you need to convince yourself of is what changes the trend. Total annual return with dividends since JAN 2017 is -3.27%
Totally good and fair point, but entry price is everything, right? Are they about to cut the dividend with a payout ratio in the 60s? Is the price just going to continue to decline to zero in the next five years despite billions in revenue? It is totally fair to ask what my buy thesis is -- and I guess that I'm betting that the price will stay flat to rise from here over the next 5 to 10 years, while I collect a monster dividend. I understand the ills of the tobacco sector, but what is the down side thesis? That for all of the reasons you both have enumerated the share price is just going to drift down forever from here, even though the company is enormously profitable and showering cash on shareholders? Yeah, there is risk, but it seems pretty contained to me, and well compensated by the divvy.
I know I sound like a PSA for confirmation bias here, but...