Great idea for a topic! Being the contrarian I always am 
.... I am not sure they are good buys because they are at one month lows, but many of them are in fact at least fairly valued. Chuck from Fast Graphs ran a stock screen on youtube (SPY). After eliminating companies with no earnings he still came up with 140 stocks trading at PE 16 or less. Some were from industries that don't command PEs that high, but still there were a lot for good names. Unfortunately we've already invested in a lot of them. The overvaluation is concentrated in the rock star stocks. Stocks like NVDA are awesome. How much are it really worth a year from now?
Anyway I am not holding any large positions in high PE stocks until I give them a chance to dip. For better or worse it's seems wise to not lean into them too hard right now. If I am wrong I am wrong I guess.
Retail is very sketchy for awhile. Some are great at logistics and will do OK. I'm pretty sure a few will come up short and get crushed. Obviously I see HD several times a week. Shelf stockage is not so bad. Nobody wants to order and pay for their Thanksgiving flooring last month. Four month wait for a LOT of custom products because our vendors don't have HD quality logistics. Crazy good spring and then store traffic died. I bet they make earnings but I don't expect amazing guidance. It's just tough to know what the market will determine is a fair multiple for six months of "not bad".
As I mentioned yesterday HRL input costs were insane. Hog prices up 250% for some of the quarter, but you can grow a hog, turkey or chicken in six months or less so it will crash like lumber already did at some point. Lumber crashed from record breaking $1700 per thousand board feet to 400ish where mills shut down for a few weeks. It took about 6 weeks off the peak and retailers have to sell some products at a loss to allow purchase of cheap product to sell at a profit.
Just random thoughts but these are crazy times.
.... I am not sure they are good buys because they are at one month lows, but many of them are in fact at least fairly valued. Chuck from Fast Graphs ran a stock screen on youtube (SPY). After eliminating companies with no earnings he still came up with 140 stocks trading at PE 16 or less. Some were from industries that don't command PEs that high, but still there were a lot for good names. Unfortunately we've already invested in a lot of them. The overvaluation is concentrated in the rock star stocks. Stocks like NVDA are awesome. How much are it really worth a year from now? Anyway I am not holding any large positions in high PE stocks until I give them a chance to dip. For better or worse it's seems wise to not lean into them too hard right now. If I am wrong I am wrong I guess.
Retail is very sketchy for awhile. Some are great at logistics and will do OK. I'm pretty sure a few will come up short and get crushed. Obviously I see HD several times a week. Shelf stockage is not so bad. Nobody wants to order and pay for their Thanksgiving flooring last month. Four month wait for a LOT of custom products because our vendors don't have HD quality logistics. Crazy good spring and then store traffic died. I bet they make earnings but I don't expect amazing guidance. It's just tough to know what the market will determine is a fair multiple for six months of "not bad".
As I mentioned yesterday HRL input costs were insane. Hog prices up 250% for some of the quarter, but you can grow a hog, turkey or chicken in six months or less so it will crash like lumber already did at some point. Lumber crashed from record breaking $1700 per thousand board feet to 400ish where mills shut down for a few weeks. It took about 6 weeks off the peak and retailers have to sell some products at a loss to allow purchase of cheap product to sell at a profit.
Just random thoughts but these are crazy times.