(08-29-2021, 11:01 AM)NilesMike Wrote:LOL counsel.(08-29-2021, 10:40 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(08-29-2021, 10:24 AM)NilesMike Wrote: Serious question, why are many here posting of their purchases and sales nearly daily averse to using timing models? The time is already spent analyzing the market, single names. Do some believe the models don't work? I am trying to understand the reluctance.I doubt most will understand your question.
I post this thread too much because it is hard to watch, but the place is supposed to be about helping others (my purpose other than entertainment). I don't need a complex timing model. I can look at a 10-20 year chart and see almost all of these are destined for a hard dip that wipes out years of high yields over and over. I own none of it unless the quality has corrected unreasonably hard. The high yield never stops attracting new buyers, and I doubt that will change soon.
You know the timing models of which I speak, they are not referencing any tickers mentioned in this thread.
Allow me to rephrase my question, your Honor (LOL): Why chase 7,8,9% high yielders when there are far superior ways to get even better returns?
The problem is the tickers in this thread are touted by S.A. authors and probably other places online. All kinds of newsletter selling gurus recommending this stuff right now way after it ran post Covid panic. These are the go to high yielders that require no effort to buy. Read a few mistimed hype articles and just buy it. The timing models are more reliable. The reality is when I get it half right I can likely get 8% yield annually wheel trading JNJ, HRL, BMY (or pick your own boring blue chip). Or maybe it all goes wrong mid year and I inly get 6% and own a stock that won't dip half as hard as these high yielders. There are a lot of ways to get 8% if you are willing to take anywhere near the risk these ETFs offer.
I'd love to teach Ken to do this. He is smart enough (this ain't rocket science), but 90 days in he is going to be wheel trading Moderna and triple Q because that 30% annual yield is just too juicy. Sorry Ken, I know you don't completely understand what that means.
For the record I've made 25-40% in months, numerous times, on a select few tickers mentioned in this thread, and I know when to walk away and not return even if it takes years for a re-entry. If the trade isn't there it isn't there. Never a huge part of my game anyway though I wish it had been.