Great thread, and interesting ideas. As a very general matter, I'd prefer an excellent company that is at fair value or somewhat above than an average or worse company that is undervalued. But of course it isn't binary, and all of those metrics are very subjective. And it will always be a case-by-case call involving a variety of factors.
But really, nothing is making much sense to me these days. Not the markets, not the economy, not society. It used to be that my crystal ball just didn't work at all. Now it is actively feeding me disinformation, I think. I seems to me we're in for a pretty serious reckoning, but maybe not for a lot of years still. With so much money sloshing around the world these days -- we're really at a loss for where to put it all at this point -- a serious and prolonged correction is hard to imagine. But maybe that's just the recency bias again. My instinct for this next chapter is to start dropping my smaller and more speculative positions, and keep building those core, best in class positions as opportunities merit.
But really, nothing is making much sense to me these days. Not the markets, not the economy, not society. It used to be that my crystal ball just didn't work at all. Now it is actively feeding me disinformation, I think. I seems to me we're in for a pretty serious reckoning, but maybe not for a lot of years still. With so much money sloshing around the world these days -- we're really at a loss for where to put it all at this point -- a serious and prolonged correction is hard to imagine. But maybe that's just the recency bias again. My instinct for this next chapter is to start dropping my smaller and more speculative positions, and keep building those core, best in class positions as opportunities merit.