Hello Together

[ken-do-nim]

(08-24-2021, 06:44 AM)NilesMike Wrote: I own UNM for the dividend, bought it in the low 20s.

Looked at my long term chart and have a heavy line at 24, UNM sure hits 24 a lot.

Next time it runs to 30s I'll sell CC and wait for drop.

I like FASTgraphs but never enough to subscribe LOL. My stock picking drill down is pretty simple. Long term div increases, stock at high end of it's yield range, low payout ratio, near support on the chart, then look if there's any significant bad news.

I also read Yahoo Finance Conversations.  Sometimes there's a useful poster there (and sometimes it is our very own stockguru, unless the ID being the same is a coincidence).

Here's one from the UNM board:

JK19 days ago

After listening to the conference call I was left with the impression UNM management is ok with a PE and PCF of 5-6X which gives you the price we have today. Multiple comments that things were "in-line with expectations" and then comments some areas improved more than expected but are not expected to continue. Leaves the impression management has fairly low expectations and the good news is fading. Who drives for aspirational goals? Where is the focus on pushing sales and improving margins? If that is not coming from the team on the call then it does not exist in the company.

The improvement in the full year outlook was described as a “lesser decline” vs. the previous outlook. Why not say "our current full year outlook exceeds our prior outlook by x%". The point was supposed to be positive.

The capital position had multiple improvements vs. Q1. The initial discussion was they would invest in organic growth but few specifics. Then the focus switched to using the excess capital to fund the LTC liabilities which is not growth oriented. In response to a somewhat astonished sounding analyst question, they also stated the pre-funding would be voluntary vs. driven by regulators. If the capital position is better than their original plan, and accelerating the funding for the LTC liabilities it is not required, why is that better than investing in growth and/or share repurchases? Improving the share price gives them more market value for acquisitions and also maintains a higher total capitalization level to stay in the index.

Many companies maintain a share repurchase authorization that they do not necessarily use frequently. Management response to the analyst question of share repurchases was a total change in tone from Q1 which seemed to catch the analysts by surprise. Unfortunately, I think UNM stock will be stuck at a grossly disadvantaged valuation based on the messaging from today’s call. I am very long so the only comfort is the healthy dividend yield.

Also vs. other companies the # of attendees seems higher which does not help in the focus and consistency of the messaging. The best managed call I listened to so far this quarter was the ViacomCBS call.


and a useful reply:


Vince, CPA19 days ago

Some interesting comment here.

I agree that the call was hogwash. I did not listen to the call, so I may be off base given I did not hear the tone, inflection, and nuances, but I read the transcript in detail. I felt like many of the Q&A responses to analysts including rambling, talking around the questions, and did not provide clear, concise, and honest answers. I prefer more straight forward communication. The analysts had to keep asking the same questions (restated slightly differently) because the UNM executives were not clearly answering them.

UNM is my largest holding and I am also a UNUM group insurance sponsor (LTD and life), but the execs really hurt my confidence in them and the company on this call. I may look to trim my holdings when/if we get back in the $30 range.