08-21-2021, 11:01 AM
(08-21-2021, 10:27 AM)NilesMike Wrote: " The gamblers will pay me stupid premiums while I wait for a bottom or a market crash. I enjoy this with a small part of my port."The math says 70% of the options I am selling expire worthless at a rate of about 500 trades a year. If I do it your way and take a smaller profit it's well over 80%. With a roll 2/3rds of the minor losers are fixed in a few weeks. I could tell you I am 29-0 selling VSTO options with 100% gain and zero rolls. I could list at least a dozen tickers I have sold a dozen or more times with zero fails and rolled under 10% of the time.
I think that is a very misunderstood part about options-that most expire worthless and therefore buying is bad.
1. There is no edge in selling options.
2. There is no edge in buying options.
3. Most options that are bought are done so to hedge something, not to speculate.
I know we make money selling options but that is because of the dance we do. That is the edge not the selling of premium.
Just as many would be never short a naked put-too risky but it has the same risk profile as a CC with one less commission. LOL
Options are but a tool to express one's opinion on market or volatility direction. No tool is correct for ALL situations.
Good luck to all.
You can probably dazzle me back with some wonderful option buys. You'll do you and I'll do me. If it was smart to buy the options I am selling I'd probably know after a couple thousand trades the past few years. I'm pretty sure you aren't buying them.
My boring option methods will pay all the bills 6 to 8 months a year in retirement. 11 months is more accurate for years now but the market doesn't go up forever. The pension income would be OK with no help so that will work during extreme down market periods.