08-21-2021, 09:31 AM
Thanks Ray,
We don't disagree that buy and hold is generally a great long-term strategy. As far as growth vs dividend, at some point along the way I figured out that we have no idea what is best for the next decade. If you put 100% of your port n FANG 10 years ago you are the smartest investor ever. PEP and JNJ might be best for the next 10. Straight up market will take a long break soon enough. When I mix it up something is always working and I fell more comfortable.
I evolved on options too. Back in the 90's I figured out that most option buyers are bad at math. You can win buying options but you better know what you are doing. Most don't and I sell to them and let the probabilities work against them. The best thing about options is I can go long on an Aristocrat, and easily double the dividend with extremely conservative call sells a few times a year. The organic dividend is nice of course but I can "fix" a bad dividend with a very high degree of success. My annual total return on utilities exceeds the index by at least 25%, and income is easily doubled with options. It's not at all complicated. I just have to be the "house" and not the gambler. I make considerable money on HRL every month while the stock goes nowhere. It's almost like a CD that pays 8% if the stock is flat for a year. HRL is dead money to the average buy and hold investor.
I got where I am investing aggressively and ignoring the market day to day. That is where 70% of my investments need to return to in retirement, but more lean into safer stocks now. I can still have fun with a smaller amount of my port. I would be forced to be more selective if I make that a smaller part of my game. I enjoy making money of spec stuff like SOFI and TTCF while it is in a death dip, knowing I can add some long shares at some point if I choose to. The gamblers will pay me stupid premiums while I wait for a bottom or a market crash. I enjoy this with a small part of my port.
We don't disagree that buy and hold is generally a great long-term strategy. As far as growth vs dividend, at some point along the way I figured out that we have no idea what is best for the next decade. If you put 100% of your port n FANG 10 years ago you are the smartest investor ever. PEP and JNJ might be best for the next 10. Straight up market will take a long break soon enough. When I mix it up something is always working and I fell more comfortable.
I evolved on options too. Back in the 90's I figured out that most option buyers are bad at math. You can win buying options but you better know what you are doing. Most don't and I sell to them and let the probabilities work against them. The best thing about options is I can go long on an Aristocrat, and easily double the dividend with extremely conservative call sells a few times a year. The organic dividend is nice of course but I can "fix" a bad dividend with a very high degree of success. My annual total return on utilities exceeds the index by at least 25%, and income is easily doubled with options. It's not at all complicated. I just have to be the "house" and not the gambler. I make considerable money on HRL every month while the stock goes nowhere. It's almost like a CD that pays 8% if the stock is flat for a year. HRL is dead money to the average buy and hold investor.
I got where I am investing aggressively and ignoring the market day to day. That is where 70% of my investments need to return to in retirement, but more lean into safer stocks now. I can still have fun with a smaller amount of my port. I would be forced to be more selective if I make that a smaller part of my game. I enjoy making money of spec stuff like SOFI and TTCF while it is in a death dip, knowing I can add some long shares at some point if I choose to. The gamblers will pay me stupid premiums while I wait for a bottom or a market crash. I enjoy this with a small part of my port.