What are your winners & losers today?

[fenders53]

I finally got around to checking out the NAIL annual report. I'd be cautious with position size if I got in right now but I am mostly bullish. I was concerned they had a large position in the raw materials suppliers like lumber mills but they don't. They are into retail suppliers like Jeld-Wen, Masonite and Mohawk and they are all doing well with a huge backlog to deliver orders. 50% in homebuilders and they should be good the next few years, though much of the good news is definitely in the stock prices already. Same with HD and LOW. Things are leveling off but they will be fine.

A lot of moving parts right now. Interest rates need to stay low. Lumber futures are finally crashing for July but the channel is already stuffed with record high priced materials. Some are up 400% since last summer when you couldn't buy some of it even if you wanted to. Around here a construction bid is good for about 5 days. Have to lock in the financing fast so the smaller builders can lock in the materials or it's back to negotiations. Some of the small contractors I deal with at work are cancelling contracts they lined up over the winter. They can't do the job for free, and most customers aren't going to pay triple for materials if they can possibly delay the project. This will probably solve itself in six months but the 2021 construction season is over in much of the country where the big money jobs are located. It's going to be interesting to watch housing start numbers going forward.