(04-01-2021, 07:14 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:I absolutely do use RSI to determine (especially on my entry) how aggressive I am inclined to be. For now, I agree with VBIN thta MA might be what you should use. It's easy to check on a daily basis, because you'll have a good idea days in advance (usually) that you are approaching a trigger point. I am not a big believer in getting too deep in technical analysis, but M.A. does work. A.I. trading triggers off it. Casual traders use it. CNBC talking heads beat it in the ground daily. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. The 200 DMA is where I would start. The 50 DMA will whipsaw you too often. 10% is just a number.(04-01-2021, 05:24 AM)vbin Wrote: You can also look at MA( moving averages) rather than simply exiting below 10% from previous low. When a stocks breaks a 50MA usually it's a bulish or bearish(depending on the direction) sign. A lot of traders take 200MA very seriously.
I will read up on moving averages, but do note that my rule is not as simply stated as "10% from previous low". You line up 2 or more previous lows and plot a course. It likely works out to about the same figure as the moving average does, but with perhaps more precision because rather than just taking 50 days or 200 days it identifies a trend line and gets you out when the trend breaks.
I am glad you have other 3X ETFs that trade inversely. Silly analogy but when you trade substantial amounts of leverage it potentially a gunfight on any given day. There will definitely be shootouts. Some of the gunslingers have to be on your side every day. I got my hard lesson during the tech bubble. 90% of my holdings were in tech and a bit of margin. I told myself I would just hold through it. I did just that and it didn't work out.
And nothing says you have to go completely in or out as you mentioned. You can gradually sell into a rally (with a set % if you like). You can also get back in the same way. i.e. 25% until you determine it's not a fake out and headed back down two days later. You can add more into strength. Your rules do need to be fairly simple, and pre-determined. I know you get that part.