Don't play with bonds.

[fenders53]

(03-16-2021, 10:42 AM)jalanlong Wrote: Time frame is everything. Last year from Jan to April EDV was up 32% while the stock market was down 10%.  When the SHTF you will want some long bonds.


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It is, but the general guidance is you need to just hold XXX percentage.  I;ve read that 10,000 times from reputable sources.  I thought the risk/reward was about 5-1 against when short-term rates went to zero.  2% yield vs 10% capital loss.  The reality is 10-1 against is likely the actual outcome.  It's a completely different game when a safe long-term bond or fund yields 5%.  A 1% move is not such a big deal.  Now a 1% move is over a 100% move in the ten year from last summer.  Bond prices say it was a big deal and the move wasn't even 1% yet.   

Anyway, I don't hate bonds forever but being down 20% on a 2% yielding safe investment is not my idea of safe.  I thought this was easy to see coming with FED and GOV actions.  That was really my only point.  As Ken mentioned it truly does make T look very attractive, even with all their fleas.