The 12% Solution Strategy

[fenders53]

(03-02-2021, 05:01 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-02-2021, 08:48 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-02-2021, 08:03 AM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-01-2021, 10:17 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Thanks, This actually looks like one of David's high flier ports with the 3X leverage.  I will check them out.  Will I be able to back test these from 2008 and catch the financial crisis? That's a must before I put big money in anything.  Anyway I will read up on them.

Convertible bonds going back to 1998

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test...sisResults

CAGR 12.9%
Drawdown <9%
1 negative year and 73% positive monthly returns

And he has a port that uses those convertible bonds with nearly identical results.  I don't know who invented these strats but they are strikingly similar from one author to another.  VERY similar CAGR and drawdown.  I just happen to have more details because the guy wrote a book.  12%+ and sub 10% drawdown is the range without leveraging.  3X Leveraging is going to get you a 20% monthly drawdown at some point, but if the entire year isn't anything like that, then it isn't so bad.  It comes with the 40% up years and one of those just happened.  It all depends on ones stomach for a short term beatdown.

I think they all may spin off Gary Antonacci's Dual Momentum strategy but I'm not sure.

After some searching around and listening to an interview, I am almost sure you are correct.  He published it and was using it for a 30 stock strategy years before the rest of the others came on the scene.  They are just blazing the trail on ETF usage.  Even Antonacci says it works more reliably for most any index.  

I've learned a lot in just a few days.  I really don't see many significant longer term issues with any I have run across.  The risk/reward is superior to most any common investing method.  I'm sure I am only seeing the strats that made it out of beta test stage of course.