03-02-2021, 06:57 AM
They are actually very similar in construction. Similar funds and moving average time periods used. Leveraged or not and performance isn't meaningfully different when compared to appropriate competing strategy. IMO that's validation the general concept works with proper fund selection. I'm not sure if I can strip the financial crisis out of the 12% because to my knowledge 1/1/08 is the start date for all his strats. He chose ETFs that existed then so he could capture the major black swan. He was writing his book prior to the big run up the past few years so he had to address 2008-2010 to be taken seriously. A back test period entirely during a bull market is on shakey ground. The hedging should work though we are in a previously uncharted interest rate environment.