02-16-2021, 12:02 PM
(02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:(02-15-2021, 09:46 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Portfolio Returns JNJ dividends reinvested 1998-2020
Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal. CAGR Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe
Portfolio 1 $10,000 $86,638 9.81% 34.62% -7.88% -32.51% 0.52
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio #1 1998-2020
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio
Model #1 $10,000 $159,670 12.80% 8.71% 49.40% -3.09% -8.89% 1.21
The power of Portfolio Visualizer. Do your homework peeps.
I haven't learned Portfolio Visualizer yet and I don't know what a "timing portfolio" is, but I don't exactly understand your point, unless it is just "Hey, JNJ has been pretty good the last 22 years." I'm not knocking it, I just think AVGO has eclipsed it.
Let's say you had $10,000 just 5 years ago. Had you invested in SHOP @ $28.21, you would now have $520,503. But that doesn't mean that investing in Shopify is a good investment now either. You can only make so much of past performance.
The point is that of all the names listed in this thread, except AVGO, were outperformed by a much simpler strategy. Additionally, with MUCH less risk. Point being, do you think you would have been able to dig out AVGO or SHOP BEFORE they exploded? History says not likely. This is all offered as education, do not fall in love with a stock or startegy to the exclusion of all else. Keep an open mind. Here are the results from a portfoilio of the names in this thread, equally weighted not including recent flyers-AVGO and SHOP. Only you can decide if that looks good to you but I will tell that CAGR/Max drawdown is supposed to be a positive number-LOL
Portfolio Returns
$10,000 Initial Balance
$79,538 Final Balance
9.40% CAGR
32.52% Best Year
-16.12% Worst Year
-24.55% Max. Drawdown
0.67 Sharpe Ratio