02-15-2021, 11:39 AM
(02-15-2021, 11:26 AM)NilesMike Wrote:It certainly is. It's looking backwards but that is all the certainty we have. The reality is folks tend to just look at their portfolio balance or blindly follow the latest hot ETF manager, or an old market guru that was successful in a different time with a different set of macros.(02-15-2021, 11:22 AM)fenders53 Wrote:Portfolio Visualizer is a great tool.(02-15-2021, 10:19 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I like your idea of running different strategies at the same time. Last year I invested in leveraged ETFs, this year I want to build both my dividend growth stocks (BroadCom, JNJ, and I'll ask about others) as well as straight dividend stocks (T, MO, NLY, etc.). I can't wait for bonus time in March!I wish I had done it when I was 35 instead of 55. A couple guys on this forum have been very helpful in refining my strategies. The problem is recency bias is hard to avoid. You do something for a year and judge it with VERY limited facts. The market capitalizes on the two strongest investing emotions, greed and fear. Right now I am sure there are many that are very frustrated with their dividend portfolios. (Mine has been OK but less than amazing). Others now have all their holdings in a few leveraged investments or extremely high PE stocks in a margin account that is maxed out on credit. They are making 200%+ a year so why wouldn't you go all in on that idea and retire in a couple years? It's really hard, but you have to run your strategy through some REAL up and down cycles to truly test it.