VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(01-05-2021, 06:28 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-05-2021, 03:49 PM)EricL Wrote: I'm not convinced that this cut is voluntary. 

Saudi's have had rig count and spending cuts just like everyone else, and may not be able to produce what they claim. Rig count has been cut in half since Q1 of 2020, and oil production has dropped by ~1.5 MMbpd already. Wouldn't it be likely that production drops another similar amount over the next 12 months? 



They save face by announcing a "surprise" million barrel per day cut, impact the crude price by doing so, and then hide the fact they can't produce as much as previously touted.

Still bullish here...

Why production would drop by same amount over next 12 months? Market is speculating for economies to open up then the demand should go up.

Still cut means Saudis see further drop in demand? Why?  Unless your theory is right that they are not able to ramp up quickly which. I really doubt is the case.

And the US political picture may change this week.  You might get those higher oil prices this year.  I bet the market will see through the hysteria if it happens.  An election doesn't make oil go away.  I do wish I hadn't sold some of my over-valued renewables stocks already though.