12-29-2020, 12:19 PM
Thanks as always. Your commentary on HRL caught my attention. It's starting to look a lot like a 20yr treasury going forward. I think they are going to need to make a move and acquire a new growthy brand or the stock is likely to stagnate for years. Their recent performance and near-term outlook doesn't justify any kind of a premium valuation anymore. The balance sheet gives them opportunity, but I don't look for them to overpay for anything just because the stock market is frothy for now. I sold my longshares up near the top and continue to sell puts for an attractive re-entry. I feel like I need to get a deal to get committed. It reminds me of KHC, except with good management. Not really the same at all, but the growth outlook for very mature brands is.