(11-14-2020, 08:32 AM)NilesMike Wrote: Interesting study.A lot of interesting data. It reflects my personal experience. I try not to seek confirmation bias because I am only on year three of high volume option trades and the market has rarely seen 60 days of downward bias.
https://spintwig.com/spy-wheel-45-dte-ca...Expiration
If I only traded SPY puts I am convinced it's clearly difficult to compete with a pure long position. The fact that I don't appears to have less downside risk of capital. I attribute it to several factors. I can cherry pick some stocks sitting near strong resistance. I always have some trading cash avalable in rotation and can enter a desired position after a notable dip when the market over-reacts short term in the absence of an overall down market. (i.e. tiny earnings miss).
My mind remains open regarding optimum DTE. I continue to hold a diverse range. When the VIX is high I have had a very good experience with options from 5 to 15 days. I tend to close them at 75%+ profit. The exception being when I am fortunate enough to grab 50% in just a few days which frequently occurs in short duration options.