04-26-2020, 07:13 AM
(04-26-2020, 06:10 AM)rayray Wrote:The overweight of the indexes by a few huge companies is getting gradually worse. We are almost to the point where ten companies running higher could cause the index to return to ATH, while 300 more are still way off their highs. If the FANG stocks ever capitulate that will be an ugly day for index investors. It would take us down too of course.(04-23-2020, 05:04 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(04-22-2020, 09:40 PM)Otter Wrote:Ray is the only one that is going to keep his hair lol.(04-19-2020, 12:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(04-19-2020, 10:56 AM)rayray Wrote: And this is why I don't try to play the market--if I feel like I can't own a stock for 10 years I move on to something else. If we are already on the mend, leading to a V recession then I bought through it. If we get another downturn, I'll buy through that one too. U-shaped recession will give us a longer time frame to accumulate.
A U shaped economic recovery seems reasonably certain. The market on the other hand is going to go up 1000pts a week for the rest of our lives. I look very forward to it.
The interesting thing to me is that half of the GICS sectors are trading straight-up U or L-shaped recession priced in. Just look at NUE. Dividend Aristocrat (47 years of DGI growth) steel producer, which has managed to raise the payout through every imaginable market condition for nearly half a century, trading at 2009 lows. Many similar stories in Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and REITs.
The other half are trading V-shaped (especially Tech), even after reporting lackluster earnings and pulling guidance. I'm not touching those.
I still think we retest some recent lows, but the stocks that are currently down 50% from their highs aren't the ones that I think are going to take the biggest beating when that happens. In the meantime, I'm selling covered calls against my SQQQ position that's down 12%.
There are huge inconsistencies in equity prices. There was no proper capitulation. It's like we were a week or two away though at the rate it fell. I continue to sell covered calls very sparingly. It is tempting to sell many more but there is too much risk the beaten up sectors will run 20% and never give you another chance. Like you said, ten year lows for some. The indexes are too dominated by a handful of companies to be a meaningful measure.
Ha! I wish I had the head of hair of my teenage self lol.
Yea...some analyst, can't remember who, said investors have to remember while there are certain types of market recoveries, individual stocks can recover differently independent of the market as a whole.
I can think of a half dozen sub-sectors that will be in deep trouble for years. Patience is great until they BK and you lose it all. That is why I do a flight to quality when things get horrible. I'll get another chance to re-invest in airlines, restaurants, amusement parks etc. I sleep better with those funds parked in a sector that I know will recover at some point. I've only ridden a couple stocks to zero. It's something I don't enjoy lol.