(03-28-2020, 11:09 AM)NilesMike Wrote: Taking a profit early is rarely good advice and I need to remind myself on every trade.
I went short ES on 3/6 @ 5:00PM @ 2996.
Took a quick 70 points and got twitchy and bought it back. My mechanics would have gotten me out on 3/27 @ 2627
I left 300 points on the table EEK. That's 15K per contract double EEK.
Was my 1st short trade with the setup after quite a few long trades
I agree, it's why the majority of my money stays invested in positions for years, though more defensively at times like these. This is one of those special times. The world has never faced a pandemic like this in my lifetime, or my parents.
Those of active on the forum shared some ideas on the active thread the past few weeks. Some restaurants truly went to BK like prices in some cases. I bought four, and all four ran 20-30% in 48HRS so I sold. Another 48HRs pass and 3 of them suspended their dividend. They crashed and I can re-enter most of them now for 25% off again. You can call it gambling if you like, but I was willing to hold all those restaurants for years. I'll prove that when I begin averaging into a few of them soon enough. Did the same thing with a half a dozen non-restaurant stocks. I'd like a little clarity before I get too deep in companies with damaged balance sheets and reduced credit ratings. That seems rational to me. Meanwhile 50% of my port remains in Pharma, Med equipment, UTES, defense contractors etc. I'll sleep a little better because that basket is notably less volatile than SPY.
Several active forum members have thrown in the towel and own no investments at all. I have no plans to do that, before the age of 80 anyway. I have spent 90% of my career investing just as Ray does. Nothing wrong with that because I truly believe the US market will go up and to the left over time. That said, I will learn and adapt to whatever the market throws at me. I won't stand by and passively take a 50% beating when most anyone knows it's coming. For now, I am going to remain defensively invested, partially hedged, and I'll hope I get more chances to fade the rally every time the market gives me a temporary 20% profit in the matter of days. Only way that happens is if I am willing to buy some fear.
We'll all get through this our own way. None of us posting this thread have chosen the same path. I truly do hope we all succeed. I think we are all hoping for Ray's short term recovery. I know that would please me for sure.