2020 Covid-19 Recession

[fenders53]

Well stated Otter. The small towns are dominated by small businesses and jobs that will never make the stimulus list as a critical industry. There will be no choice but to address that with a future bill as the effect is going to be widespread. Not that the specifics are important, by I live in a smallish town of 4000. It's a touristy little town with shops and restaurants. Very popular seasonally which is very soon. Not a bit of it is critical, but 15% of the working age people from this town probably work there. No way its all coming back. 80% of the businesses were just getting by well enough before this happened. My cousin called five minutes ago to cancel a vacation with us. She started a small travel business two years ago that was doing OK. She hasn't paid herself a dime for a month and the rent is due. She has zero business and there is zero hope of any for months. These little stories are surely playing out all over the country already. A loan they can't pay back with no revenue flow isn't going to fix it quick enough. The fiscal stimulus costs are going to be absolutely enormous. I am concerned how much of that we can get by with.

That said, I don't think the market will match up well with reality for awhile. The market should be down another 25%, but I'm not so sure it will with all this juice. We don't know of course. The last three days have been a good example of that. I do expect the market to rocket up higher a number of times on hope. There is still considerable faith out there. I better refine my trading skills if I don't want to wait years to be back to even.