03-27-2020, 08:13 AM
I'd like one like OCT-DEC 2018 please. 
Seriously though, I hope it is much shorter from than the last two real recessions. A five to seven year wait for a return to all-time S&P 500 high did not bother me during my accumulation years. It shouldn't bother anyone with a long investment horizon.
Reality is what actually matters. I try to view it as Chuck Carnivale does. It's a market of stocks, not a stock market. This is like no other recession so far. Near zero revenues and epic FED intervention. The following is 1000% just my opinion.
-It's my belief that a very select list of companies could return to their ATH within 12 months.
-Some companies have taken very significant damage to their balance sheet. Their credit rating is now junk status. They were somewhat overly in debt before this happened, and now they have no choice but borrow much more. It will take them years to restore it and will require they cut CAPEX, remain very conservative with dividends restoration. If the virus only lasts a few more months they might be back to normal by 2023-2024. I hope to avoid owning many of these. If I was 30 years old they would represent a wonderful buying opportunity if you are careful about your entry.
-Some companies are likely facing bankruptcy, re-organization, mergers etc., never returning to their all-time high. I'm hopeful it's a very short list. Some oil companies, airlines, restaurants and the hospitality business will likely be casualties if things don't change fast. Recessions always weed out the truly weak. It's normal in a capitalistic system. These are extremely risky DGI picks and only spec plays to me.
Seriously though, I hope it is much shorter from than the last two real recessions. A five to seven year wait for a return to all-time S&P 500 high did not bother me during my accumulation years. It shouldn't bother anyone with a long investment horizon. Reality is what actually matters. I try to view it as Chuck Carnivale does. It's a market of stocks, not a stock market. This is like no other recession so far. Near zero revenues and epic FED intervention. The following is 1000% just my opinion.
-It's my belief that a very select list of companies could return to their ATH within 12 months.
-Some companies have taken very significant damage to their balance sheet. Their credit rating is now junk status. They were somewhat overly in debt before this happened, and now they have no choice but borrow much more. It will take them years to restore it and will require they cut CAPEX, remain very conservative with dividends restoration. If the virus only lasts a few more months they might be back to normal by 2023-2024. I hope to avoid owning many of these. If I was 30 years old they would represent a wonderful buying opportunity if you are careful about your entry.
-Some companies are likely facing bankruptcy, re-organization, mergers etc., never returning to their all-time high. I'm hopeful it's a very short list. Some oil companies, airlines, restaurants and the hospitality business will likely be casualties if things don't change fast. Recessions always weed out the truly weak. It's normal in a capitalistic system. These are extremely risky DGI picks and only spec plays to me.