03-24-2020, 12:16 PM
(03-24-2020, 11:47 AM)vbin Wrote:(03-24-2020, 11:41 AM)Otter Wrote:This guy is also predicting great recession based on Elliot curve and debt bubble but I do not agree with that theory.(03-24-2020, 11:36 AM)vbin Wrote: You guys might wanna go through this thread. Good to have different prospectives.
https://us.teamblind.com/s/VOjed7r0
If you guys don't have the app, they have a website aswell. Just Google ask me about the crash blind
Yup. Bear markets always have the biggest rallies.
Yeah. I don't have a crystal ball for typical economic/business cycles. My entire side-bet short thesis since early February has been tied to anticipated impacts of the virus, based upon epidemiological modeling.
I still think the most severe impacts (peak of the peak) are around the end of April, beginning of May timeframe. My best guess is that the downward market pressure will largely follow the virus for that period.
I have absolutely no idea what happens with the markets after the peak recedes. Do we skid along sideways for a while? Maybe. Do we drift lower for a few months until reaching a March 2009 nadir, as compounding negative economic data drifts in? Maybe. Do we start to rise slowly? Maybe. Is there a rapid run-up relief rally? Maybe.
With all this speculative stuff, I'm keeping my timing tied to the anticipated peak. I anticipate going long on a lot of stuff in 4-5 weeks.
I could also be wrong. Perhaps everything is already priced in and we've seen the bottom already.