03-10-2020, 11:25 AM
(03-10-2020, 11:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Thanks for your input Otter. We definitely agree there will be no V bottom this time. I am deeply disappointed we just wasted most of our spare bullets shooting them into the sky like some cheap loan rates would somehow make virus fear go away. (Not just fear). But whats done is done, and the environment will be good for a rapid recovery. This isn't 2008 at all IMO. There will come a time when the market runs violently higher in a matter of a week. I need to be there for that. I'll have to do this when the masses are still a little scared. Waiting for blue skies will be too late like always. You miss half the ride up when you wait for it to be obviously safe. It's never risk free.
As to option pricing, this I absolutely agree with. The time to buy calls or go short volatility will be the point of maximum pessimism and capitulation.
I am going to do my best to identify that time and allocate some funds in accordance with that thesis, but am aware that prospects of success in that area are extremely low (hence limiting the amount of funds used). My primary objective will be stocking up on underlying shares of blue chips that I have wanted to own/add to for years, but didn't due to valuation concerns.