02-27-2020, 04:09 PM
The only pandemic in the past 120 years with a case fatality rate of 2% or more was the 1918-1920 "Spanish Flu" (estimated case fatality rate of 2-3%).
Almost no one alive has any personal memory of such an event. If the statistics bear out on SARS-CoV-2, that would be the closest analogue. No other outbreak/epidemic (SARS, Ebola, MERS have never escalated to pandemic) has escalated to worldwide spread with a deadlier virus (thank goodness). And no other pandemic (Swine Flu, 1968 Hong Kong Flu, 1957 Asian Flu) comes anywhere close to a case fatality rate of 2% (they were all orders of magnitude lower).
The statistics have been crunched by a lot of reputable epidemiological and infectious disease experts. There are now a growing number of studies regarding R0 (how infectious it is), clinical presentation of the disease/case studies, case fatality rates, etc. from experts and groups such as (Twitter handles and websites below if you would like to build a feed of actual experts who are speaking about the disease):
Imperial College London's MRC Centre for Infectious Disease Analysis (@MRC_Outbreak on Twitter)
Dr. Gabriel Leung, dean of the University of Hong Kong’s Faculty of Medicine (@gmleunghku on Twitter)
Professor Marc Lipsitch, Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health (@mlipsitch on Twitter)
Professor Neil Ferguson, Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London (@neil_ferguson on Twitter)
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, FDA Commissioner 2017-2019 (@ScottGottliebMD on Twitter)
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, epidemiologist, health economist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (@DrEricDing on Twitter)
Ian M. Mackay, PhD, Virologist and Associate Professor at University of Queensland (@MackayIM on Twitter)
The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus )
New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus )
Los Alamos National Laboratory (their referenced R0 Study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20021154v1 )
CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/media/dpk/diseases-a...-2020.html )
If you assume that the experts are correct regarding the likelihood of a pandemic, and the statistical likelihood of disease progression through the population (% with pneumonia, % with symptoms requiring ICU care, mortality rate), no economic models based upon prior epidemics or pandemics are likely to be of any meaningful use. If the experts are right, the implied supply chain disruptions and demand shocks are likely to be the biggest seen since the Second World War. Europe and South Korea are just now at the very bottom of a potentially steep exponential curve, if what happened in Hubei Province is any guide.
Almost no one alive has any personal memory of such an event. If the statistics bear out on SARS-CoV-2, that would be the closest analogue. No other outbreak/epidemic (SARS, Ebola, MERS have never escalated to pandemic) has escalated to worldwide spread with a deadlier virus (thank goodness). And no other pandemic (Swine Flu, 1968 Hong Kong Flu, 1957 Asian Flu) comes anywhere close to a case fatality rate of 2% (they were all orders of magnitude lower).
The statistics have been crunched by a lot of reputable epidemiological and infectious disease experts. There are now a growing number of studies regarding R0 (how infectious it is), clinical presentation of the disease/case studies, case fatality rates, etc. from experts and groups such as (Twitter handles and websites below if you would like to build a feed of actual experts who are speaking about the disease):
Imperial College London's MRC Centre for Infectious Disease Analysis (@MRC_Outbreak on Twitter)
Dr. Gabriel Leung, dean of the University of Hong Kong’s Faculty of Medicine (@gmleunghku on Twitter)
Professor Marc Lipsitch, Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health (@mlipsitch on Twitter)
Professor Neil Ferguson, Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London (@neil_ferguson on Twitter)
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, FDA Commissioner 2017-2019 (@ScottGottliebMD on Twitter)
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, epidemiologist, health economist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (@DrEricDing on Twitter)
Ian M. Mackay, PhD, Virologist and Associate Professor at University of Queensland (@MackayIM on Twitter)
The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus )
New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus )
Los Alamos National Laboratory (their referenced R0 Study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20021154v1 )
CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/media/dpk/diseases-a...-2020.html )
If you assume that the experts are correct regarding the likelihood of a pandemic, and the statistical likelihood of disease progression through the population (% with pneumonia, % with symptoms requiring ICU care, mortality rate), no economic models based upon prior epidemics or pandemics are likely to be of any meaningful use. If the experts are right, the implied supply chain disruptions and demand shocks are likely to be the biggest seen since the Second World War. Europe and South Korea are just now at the very bottom of a potentially steep exponential curve, if what happened in Hubei Province is any guide.