02-27-2020, 02:44 AM
(02-26-2020, 09:51 PM)NilesMike Wrote: 1) Bear markets are short lived-14 months on average.
2) The market has a built in upward drift, they will go up in time.
3) DGI allows one not to worry (as much) about portfolio totals. I watch to see income growing, because that is what I will spend in retirement.
4) Buy good stuff, it's OK to speculate but know that you are speculating.
5) Learn about valuation, not price.
To the AZO buyer, I work for one of the BIG parts retailers, I'd be careful. I think there are industry changing shifts coming along that will not be pretty for valuations on these retailers.
Good post Mike. When you have time, a good contribution to this thread might be how to hedge your port. Nothing complicated (although I'd learn that if it's worth it). I realize one can just buy a SPY put and watch it go worthless.
An auto parts thread might be useful. As you know I'm knowledgeable on parts quality. I even worked for AZO just a few months. I actually worked at a decent store, but to be honest I don't understand how they have been as successful as they have. Its always kept me from owning AZO, and obviously it's been a solid stock to own. .
To all.... How do you generally enter new trades after a significant pullback? Take this one for example. The typical 8-12% pullback. Enough to sting your port, but you don't think a real bear market is imminent. If you believe this one is destined for down 30%, well that's a different matter. I know I am typically too early. I understand I am not going to time the bottom very often. In the past I have just thrown down a few fairly large trades. Free commissions caused me to try something a little different this time. Much smaller purchases, spread across most everything in my port that I have confidence in. The buy quality thing. I can do this ten times over months because I happen to be cashier than usual. That's not a typical situation. It shouldn't be that way for a younger investor for sure. Maybe it's a personality thing, or perhaps merely discipline. I suffer from reverse FOMO. I lose zero sleep because I miss a bull run like TSLA or FAANG. Now let stocks drop and I really have to be careful because I hate to miss a good dip on a stock I've been waiting for.