02-10-2020, 02:02 PM
(02-10-2020, 01:48 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, so let's suppose you're correct. I understand this strain is nasty. So why do you buy very expensive options that expire 14 months from now? If this is as bad as you fear, it will take just a few weeks to know. Spring kills off the flu. At least it always has to my knowledge. Tesla and many other business opened back up today. Is China truly that delusional? That's not a rhetorical question BTW.
Spreading at the same rate in Singapore (tropical climate, at the equator), as it was in Wuhan when reported cases were around the same numbers. Singapore reporting community spread of the disease (i.e., no longer tied solely to travelers who have arrived from affected areas, but spreading within the community). Saw the reports about the TSLA Gigafactory in Shanghai, but Shenzhen (global center of electronics/telecom hardware) is still locked down, with Foxconn announcing that they are out of commission "until further notice." Schools shut in Hubei Province until at least March 1.
It takes a while for narrative to change. First reports of the new disease in Wuhan came out in late November. It took about two months for the seriousness of the situation to overwhelm public health authorities in affected Chinese provinces, and to garner global notice. If we are at a similar stage globally as Wuhan was in November, it could be March before similar effects are prevalent elsewhere. Real and lasting impacts may not be seen in financial reporting until starting in 3Q 2020 (although i suspect the market would react prior to that in the event a global pandemic is indeed underway).
Narrative could also change much sooner, and I can capitalize on the change in value of the option contracts if that does in fact occur.