02-10-2020, 11:39 AM
Went to 100% Ultrashort Bond Fund allocation in the 401k today (had a small % left in an emerging markets index fund).
Bought 20 SPY MAR 19 2021 305 Puts this morning in the taxable account. SARS resulted in a 10% market dip, and killed fewer people in over a year than 2019-nCoV has in a few short weeks, without any quarantines of major Chinese manufacturing or shipping hubs. WHO confirming reports of virus transmission outside of China by people with no known travel history to China, and that 15% of infected patients contract pneumonia, with 3-5% of all infected requiring ICU-level care. Those statistics, assuming the WHO is accurate, would overwhelm all health systems globally in short order if this goes global (as it appears to be doing). Assuming Chinese official reported numbers of 2.4% death rate are accurate, that's 185,000,000 dead if this goes global (roughly 2.5x the total number killed in WWII).
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/coronavi...dates.html
Bought 20 SPY MAR 19 2021 305 Puts this morning in the taxable account. SARS resulted in a 10% market dip, and killed fewer people in over a year than 2019-nCoV has in a few short weeks, without any quarantines of major Chinese manufacturing or shipping hubs. WHO confirming reports of virus transmission outside of China by people with no known travel history to China, and that 15% of infected patients contract pneumonia, with 3-5% of all infected requiring ICU-level care. Those statistics, assuming the WHO is accurate, would overwhelm all health systems globally in short order if this goes global (as it appears to be doing). Assuming Chinese official reported numbers of 2.4% death rate are accurate, that's 185,000,000 dead if this goes global (roughly 2.5x the total number killed in WWII).
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/coronavi...dates.html