02-10-2020, 09:29 AM
Ron,
An interesting subject full of misinformation, and politics. I've been interested for a long time. I really thought hybrids would take off 20 years ago. The cost was the problem. Initial purchase price, battery replacement, and the fact fossil fuels get cheap intermittently. EV range confined it to hybrid or it wasn't practical at all. The latter is changing fast of course. I believe EV will be adopted as viable technology, but nowhere close to the rate the "Cult" recites on S.A. and elsewhere. GM and Ford are proceeding slow for valid reasons (IMO). They'll catch up when it makes sense.
To your points, I do wonder if the grid could support widespread adoption of EV over the course of just a few years. I suspect the answer is no in many areas of the country. I don't think we will test that theory. I could drive an EV has my local work car. I can also keep driving my 2008 Camry ICE at a tiny fraction of overall cost. I think EV adoption will be VERY slow in more rural areas. That won't likely slow the growth of EV though.
I can envision EVs and hybrids at 10% of US market this decade. Considerably higher in Europe. Actually outlawing ICE anywhere seems incredibly risky. I don't see it happening without grandfathering it in over such long periods of time it's basically meaningless now. I don't see EV putting oil out of business. I do see it killing growth sufficiently to cause problems with my oil investments in the not so distant future.
An interesting subject full of misinformation, and politics. I've been interested for a long time. I really thought hybrids would take off 20 years ago. The cost was the problem. Initial purchase price, battery replacement, and the fact fossil fuels get cheap intermittently. EV range confined it to hybrid or it wasn't practical at all. The latter is changing fast of course. I believe EV will be adopted as viable technology, but nowhere close to the rate the "Cult" recites on S.A. and elsewhere. GM and Ford are proceeding slow for valid reasons (IMO). They'll catch up when it makes sense.
To your points, I do wonder if the grid could support widespread adoption of EV over the course of just a few years. I suspect the answer is no in many areas of the country. I don't think we will test that theory. I could drive an EV has my local work car. I can also keep driving my 2008 Camry ICE at a tiny fraction of overall cost. I think EV adoption will be VERY slow in more rural areas. That won't likely slow the growth of EV though.
I can envision EVs and hybrids at 10% of US market this decade. Considerably higher in Europe. Actually outlawing ICE anywhere seems incredibly risky. I don't see it happening without grandfathering it in over such long periods of time it's basically meaningless now. I don't see EV putting oil out of business. I do see it killing growth sufficiently to cause problems with my oil investments in the not so distant future.