08-19-2019, 12:50 PM
(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming. Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later? This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.
With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.
(08-19-2019, 11:40 AM)Otter Wrote: IIRC, the market typically rallies 15-20% after a 2/10 yield curve inversion, prior to the recession kicking off.I believe that is correct. More of a caution sign than a stop sign. And most every recession has a different set of circumstances. I find the markets ability to turn on a dime in the short-term fascinating. It's as if the market "forgets" what it was worrying about or celebrating 48 hours earlier.