08-15-2019, 09:24 AM
(08-15-2019, 09:09 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(08-15-2019, 08:33 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: I didn’t go back to exactly July 29, but from the high water mark in July I am down around 4%.
YTD, still showing about 11% up and just over 7% from 1 year ago.
7% is really good Ron. The average index investor has to be sitting really close to even the past 12MO, and maybe down a little. I really think our attraction to dividend stocks is going to help us when the market is rough. There is just no other place to get a safe yield and beat inflation. Bond funds are likely to take a hit at the first sign of good news.
I'm still not sure what to make of bonds. The 30-year chart on bonds would suggest that we are still near the top of an unprecedented bond bull market, and that reversion to mean in terms of interest rates will absolutely kill bonds.
That said, long term demographic trends of an aging population and population growth falling to or below replacement levels point to long-term deflationary pressures. Then again, that same aging population will likely create even more government debt through healthcare spending, and that increased debt load will have a less prosperous and smaller cohort of working-age people to support it.
These are also trends that will impact companies with progressive dividend policies. Retirees don't tend to consume as much across all sectors as working age people with kids, which appear to be a diminishing demographic. They may consume more in certain sectors (healthcare), but that increased consumption invites government regulation and price controls (and old people vote).
My magic eight ball says not sure, so I just keep putting money in the pot as often as I can, and hope for the best.