(05-08-2019, 10:22 AM)Kerim Wrote: If you guys are quite done with all of the big-picture-perspective and mortality and stuff (), I just read this interesting article and thought we could add central counterparties to the list of potential market-killing risks.
Ray started it lol. That was an interesting article BTW.
.............back to Nostradamus mode for me. Now listen up Kerim and I'll make us some big money lol .....
There is next to zero risk of a real recession in the immediate future. The numbers absolutely do not support it. GDP growth, inflation, unemployment. It just isn't there, and hasn't been for some time. The market is conveniently ignoring the fact corporate profit growth is slowing to a crawl for the vast majority of companies. These stocks would have been crushed for earnings reports like this only last fall. Now it's suddenly OK to grow 2% or even less YOY. The FED will sit still enough IMO.
All that said I see a very choppy market for the foreseeable future. I think the fast train to the sky is over. I think the 500pt daily swings are back. China is going to game us to some degree. Our prez is going to try to play hardball but an election is coming. He'll find a way to juice the market and fight the battle at the same time. The election cycle will cause attacks on some of our favorite DGI stock's sectors. I'll be very surprised if the market is anything but sideways for a year or more. But there will be chances to buy low and sell high on individual stocks. I will not be without cash to invest at any time.
The real recession comes when the bubble pops on all this loose monetary policy. I don't know what year it happens or what county ignites it but it's coming. It can't end any other way.