Conservative option strategies, what did you buy or sell today?

[fenders53]

(04-26-2019, 09:15 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-25-2019, 07:41 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-25-2019, 08:44 AM)Otter Wrote: TSLA looks like a pretty safe bet to head to $0. The numbers just don't add up for them. Destroying $700 million in the first quarter, no realistic growth catalysts on the horizon, and the CEO talking about branching out into insurance on the latest earnings call. Am actually considering buying a put for the first time in my life. Missed out on Enron.

I'm not quite that pessimistic yet.  They'll have to issue shares soon.  They are still solid enough to do that. They are six months late.  I don't wish them bad luck, but I knew their base model car at $50K+ wasn't going to work out past the initial demand surge.  Until recently that was about as cheap as you could get one.  I'll be surprised in the stock goes anywhere but slowly down for now.  The cult is still in tact, but I can't imagine the big money isn't dumping right now.   Elon's new idea of the week makes him sound absolutely unhinged.  Tesla insurance?  That's a good one.  Pretty sure you need sterling credit and huge cash reserves.  Not to mention getting licensed in 50 states.

Supposedly Musk hits a margin call around $232/share, and he recently took out $61 million in mortgages on residential property holdings of his in California. Things could get very interesting soon.

Short interest in TSLA is up to about 26% now. I suspect a big part of that is Goldman. Their recent downgrade provides a $190 price target.

Panics usually start as a trickle, but the stampede for the exits can develop quickly.

It's an interesting story I spend too much time reading about.  The cultists will stick around and end up holding the bag.  TSLA is worth $50.  That's still twice book value the other automakers are awarded. That's probably appropriate for blazing the EV trail. EV is going to become mainstream, but TSLA will run out of money WAY before it happens.  If Musk would stand down I think they would survive. That is the wildcard.  He's always been impulsive but it's on another level now.  He is panicking.  Institutions are leaving now IMO.  They won't scare the market to excess until they have liquidated.