It's been a big run if you pulled out of equities in late DEC and missed out on a 20% rise, which a lot of people did based on mutual fund outflows. Half of them should be getting back in by summer 
Like you said Otter, we have to be closer to the end than the beginning of this cycle.
We all know a beating is coming at some point in the next few years. (at least we think we know anyway). I know I won't get it perfect, but I am determined to not take a bludgeoning a few years before I retire for real. I wish I had went 100% equities late DEC, but I didn't and it's too late to do what I wish I'd done then(IMO it's too late anyway). Since it isn't taxable I look for opportunities to peel off a little profit here and there, and put it in the ultra-short bond fund like Otter. It;s starting to pile up and I sleep better. I'll feel a whole lot better about my port taking the inevitable flogging if I can shop for beat down stocks every month with some real money. That is how you get amazing returns, but it requires a bit of luck unfortunately.
I am NOT going to ride out a crash with 100% of my port in stocks at the top. Been there, done that, it really sucks, and it's avoidable. Even if you are 25yrs old it's nice to buy some on the bottom. 100% invested just because you are young is bad advice. All that said, a series of years similar to 2018 is not out of the question. We could be +/- 5% annually for years. With all the electronic trading now it sure seems like even those kind of years are going to include so pretty significant volatility we can take advantage of. I am going to guess DEC 18 becomes normal as some of these companies hit stagnant or even slightly declining earnings. I on;t rule out the possibility of a US infrastructure package. Maybe that could pass a vote in the US? Nobody wants to be directly linked to the the cause of crashing this economy before an election.
Like you said Otter, we have to be closer to the end than the beginning of this cycle. We all know a beating is coming at some point in the next few years. (at least we think we know anyway). I know I won't get it perfect, but I am determined to not take a bludgeoning a few years before I retire for real. I wish I had went 100% equities late DEC, but I didn't and it's too late to do what I wish I'd done then(IMO it's too late anyway). Since it isn't taxable I look for opportunities to peel off a little profit here and there, and put it in the ultra-short bond fund like Otter. It;s starting to pile up and I sleep better. I'll feel a whole lot better about my port taking the inevitable flogging if I can shop for beat down stocks every month with some real money. That is how you get amazing returns, but it requires a bit of luck unfortunately.
I am NOT going to ride out a crash with 100% of my port in stocks at the top. Been there, done that, it really sucks, and it's avoidable. Even if you are 25yrs old it's nice to buy some on the bottom. 100% invested just because you are young is bad advice. All that said, a series of years similar to 2018 is not out of the question. We could be +/- 5% annually for years. With all the electronic trading now it sure seems like even those kind of years are going to include so pretty significant volatility we can take advantage of. I am going to guess DEC 18 becomes normal as some of these companies hit stagnant or even slightly declining earnings. I on;t rule out the possibility of a US infrastructure package. Maybe that could pass a vote in the US? Nobody wants to be directly linked to the the cause of crashing this economy before an election.