03-26-2019, 06:17 AM
Sounds like we mostly agree. Whether investing or gambling, I think it's best you invest yourself in the story enough to form a base premise. For me it would be something like this....
-They are the leader in a future tech the world thinks is important. They do survive in one form or another. At some point they do not avoid all the "rules" of the auto business. If automaker or industrial valuation rules were applied at all, they are years from growing into today's price. Their margin for error is fading fast now that debt demands profitability in the foreseeable future. For now it still has the aura of crypto-currency in the minds of many. For now it's my assumption the bad news will dominate the good news for 2019. They really need to make the international expansion work, and they don't have forever to make that happen.
I say support is not going to hold past the next earnings report. That doesn't mean this trading game ends. It just finds a new trading range. From $200 to 250 perhaps? This is NOT a long-term hold from this level IMO. Unless of course you are OK with waiting 5+ years to be even because that scenario is probable if any sort of recession occurs during the next few years. To my knowledge no car maker has been immune from a recession, ever. This is not basic transportation for the poor. It was a rich guys toy, and now they try to be a mainstream car at lower margins. We are at the wrong end of the economic cycle for TSLA's current finances.
-They are the leader in a future tech the world thinks is important. They do survive in one form or another. At some point they do not avoid all the "rules" of the auto business. If automaker or industrial valuation rules were applied at all, they are years from growing into today's price. Their margin for error is fading fast now that debt demands profitability in the foreseeable future. For now it still has the aura of crypto-currency in the minds of many. For now it's my assumption the bad news will dominate the good news for 2019. They really need to make the international expansion work, and they don't have forever to make that happen.
I say support is not going to hold past the next earnings report. That doesn't mean this trading game ends. It just finds a new trading range. From $200 to 250 perhaps? This is NOT a long-term hold from this level IMO. Unless of course you are OK with waiting 5+ years to be even because that scenario is probable if any sort of recession occurs during the next few years. To my knowledge no car maker has been immune from a recession, ever. This is not basic transportation for the poor. It was a rich guys toy, and now they try to be a mainstream car at lower margins. We are at the wrong end of the economic cycle for TSLA's current finances.