03-25-2019, 10:35 PM
(03-25-2019, 03:50 PM)NilesMike Wrote: I was considering doing an extensive study on TSLA and see if I could just trade the underlying profitably. It does move plenty, anybody watching it that closely?
The problem with the whole stock is that literally anything can happen.
First there is the thing that Fender mentioned about a lot of gamblers... both long and short. That definitely sparks up a lot of volatility and results in some pretty crazy moves due to people getting scared. I'd say that with Tesla it's more about psychology than anything else.
Maybe related to the point above... but I see that there is always people digging up bad news. ANYTHING they say or do has a lot of very negative press around it. Again, more volatility, probably done intentionally by some of the bigger shorters.
Related to the point above. Musk having a twitter account is not a good thing.
So yeah, it moves plenty but I'd say that those moves are pretty hard to predict as they are mainly due to news/stories or tweets and people over reacting to them. You can't possibly predict when Elon will open his twitter account and send the stock down 5% or 10%. Or maybe someone publishes an article and it does the same thing.
The company itself isn't too bad, though I am also worried about the changing strategies. They might make it a profitable year in 2019 or 2020... and they certainly are the #1 electric car manufacturer right now but that could change.
But by all means have a look and give it a try. It's definitely more gambling than investing but gambling can be profitable too.