01-19-2018, 07:52 AM
(01-17-2018, 02:29 PM)EricL Wrote: Just a few thoughts.
I'll point out that airlines are historically pretty cyclical companies, so keep that in mind with DAL.
The FAST Graph on SAFT looks pretty bad. Volatile earnings and little growth over the years. ORI, SUP, and PACW have similar trends.
Also not a fan of GME. In a raging bull market and decent economy it has grown EPS at a negative rate over the last 5 years. It's also just BB rated, which is junk bond status.
Also might want to look at D, DUK, WEC, LNT, NEE, AEP as potential alternatives to ED. They have similar or higher yields but are all growing at faster rates.
Just my $0.02 if you wanted some input.
Eric,
Thanks for the feedback. I feel ok with DAL and the way the airlines have restructured and redone their business models in general. I know it might be a little more of a ride then some stocks but was an industrial sector that I felt I needed to at least have a toe in. They are my favorite name in the space at least at the moment. Grabbed the name originally on a little pull back and as noted I'm pretty short in the space already. Tough to swallow the HON, MMM, BA or GD pricing sometimes.
I have D and DUK along with NEE also already in full positions. I also have some SCG which I don't like but should covert to D and be a pretty nice deal (got it the day before the announcement). ED is my other name there. I really picked them up because they have been sold off so hard, I thought it was a bit overdone. I'm certainly not doing back flips over them that's for sure. The utility guys have been my worst performers but also perhaps best opportunities to purchase on sell offs in this market. Time will tell I guess. I really like D and DUK for sure. If nothing else they make a really nice dividend boost to the overall portfolio.
SAFT, ORI, SUP, PACW and GME are all flyer names - 100%. I think PACW is getting it together. Honestly I went with future estimates and the fact that in the interim they all throw off some pretty decent yields. I know that sounds absurd and I agree with your premise that they are all under performers, so I will re-evaluate holding them all before it reaches my deadline. They each hold less than 1/100th of the portfolio currently and may very well stay at that level. But you're right in the sense they've been around a while and don't show real signs of "taking off". Having a hard time finding those sort of speculative names. The smaller firm that has great patents or tech, new products, new batteries...whatever the case may be. I realize they won't have a dividend and I'm ok with that. Guess if I knew about them so would everyone else ;-)
Again really appreciate the feedback and don't disagree with a single thing you offered.