11-06-2017, 01:13 PM
Well, here are my thoughts.
There has been nothing major that has affected their business model in this last drop from about 37 to the current 32 and change. Sure the cord cutting was a bit higher than expected but we all knew it was happening, and if you listen to the conference call they give pretty good reasons for most of it. (they upped their credit requirements, mainly in the form of cancelling subscriptions that were behind on the payments)
The TimeWarner merger is a thing of it's own, I won't touch that subject here... there would be so much to cover.
In the short term, I have no idea. It could go lower, it could bounce back to $35. Who knows? On the longer term, you're looking at slow increase in EPS, though the merger will of course sway this too if it happens. I actually have no idea if it would bring up the EPS or not... but I do feel like, in the long term, the merger is a good thing. Then you're looking at a $0.01 increase in dividend each year, at least for the next 2-3 years but probably for your whole holding period of 5 years max. If we get lucky then it'll be a bit more than $0.01 during those last years. For a 2-5 year plan, I think you'll do well at these levels.
There has been nothing major that has affected their business model in this last drop from about 37 to the current 32 and change. Sure the cord cutting was a bit higher than expected but we all knew it was happening, and if you listen to the conference call they give pretty good reasons for most of it. (they upped their credit requirements, mainly in the form of cancelling subscriptions that were behind on the payments)
The TimeWarner merger is a thing of it's own, I won't touch that subject here... there would be so much to cover.
In the short term, I have no idea. It could go lower, it could bounce back to $35. Who knows? On the longer term, you're looking at slow increase in EPS, though the merger will of course sway this too if it happens. I actually have no idea if it would bring up the EPS or not... but I do feel like, in the long term, the merger is a good thing. Then you're looking at a $0.01 increase in dividend each year, at least for the next 2-3 years but probably for your whole holding period of 5 years max. If we get lucky then it'll be a bit more than $0.01 during those last years. For a 2-5 year plan, I think you'll do well at these levels.