Declining use in Europe and increasing taxes/legislation is a concern of mine. Europe is roughly 1/3 of their earnings.
I'm also concerned about the debt. Their cash flow has been dropping(yoy) and debt increasing.... not a good combo. Also once the fed starts to taper they will no longer have access to cheap borrowing which has been funding the large buybacks.
I'm hoping/kind of expecting for their next earnings to be a good one, since they raised the dividend more than expected.
As I said in the other thread I'm looking for a roughly $83 entry point. That's less than 2% from where we are today. A couple of reasons none of which are too technical:
1. My current average price is $85 and I like to average down.
2. Pm's normal historic Pe/ratio according to fast graphs is 15.2 or close to $83. I would prefer to buy it below that but it hasn't dropped below that line in 2 years, and I don't think it will go much lower since the div is so high here.
3. @ $83 pm yields 4.5%
Currently I have 5.8% of my portfolio in LO, 2.3% in PM and 1.2% in MO. So roughly 9.3% in tobacco. I'll probably double my stake in PM and not add anymore for a while. I don't want to go over 10% in tobacco.
One last thing, if they ever get into China it will be HUGE for PM. I'm not sure if that will ever happen.
I'm also concerned about the debt. Their cash flow has been dropping(yoy) and debt increasing.... not a good combo. Also once the fed starts to taper they will no longer have access to cheap borrowing which has been funding the large buybacks.
I'm hoping/kind of expecting for their next earnings to be a good one, since they raised the dividend more than expected.
As I said in the other thread I'm looking for a roughly $83 entry point. That's less than 2% from where we are today. A couple of reasons none of which are too technical:
1. My current average price is $85 and I like to average down.
2. Pm's normal historic Pe/ratio according to fast graphs is 15.2 or close to $83. I would prefer to buy it below that but it hasn't dropped below that line in 2 years, and I don't think it will go much lower since the div is so high here.
3. @ $83 pm yields 4.5%
Currently I have 5.8% of my portfolio in LO, 2.3% in PM and 1.2% in MO. So roughly 9.3% in tobacco. I'll probably double my stake in PM and not add anymore for a while. I don't want to go over 10% in tobacco.
One last thing, if they ever get into China it will be HUGE for PM. I'm not sure if that will ever happen.