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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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Let's hope they keep coming in!
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I don't recall any significant dividend cuts in the 2022 downturn, but I recall lots of cuts in the 2007-2009 Great Recession. I would expect what we're just starting will resemble the latter more than the former.
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I'm afraid that you're right. I moved some to the sidelines over the past year, but not nearly as much as I'd intended. I'm reminding myself daily that the market requires fortitude. That downdrafts are where you make the real money. But the risks feel so much different this time... (I know, I know.)
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I agree, it feels so much different this time.
I think part of the reason is we've spent years fine-tuning our portfolios to where we felt comfortable with small changes from time to time. The Covid upsets happened so fast, there really wasn't that much time, for me anyway, to ponder upon it and, as a result, that I felt no major adjustments may be required. I know I bought some in those relatively fast dips but prices on most stocks never got to bargain basement levels on companies I was interest in.
In the 2008/2009 GFC, it seemed pretty obvious to me that something was going to break. Not that I anticipated such a large reaction but I knew several people in the 2006-2007 time frame that made their living flipping mortgages or acting as bank "storefronts" to get people qualified for a mortgage. All the ones that I knew didn't have a clue about finances or how the banking system worked. All they knew is that they got a commission if they could get someone to sign up for a mortgage.
In the dot.com bust, I think I've already written here about my stupid reactions to the euphoria over tech.
It appears in this case, tariffs are going to be a major player. From looking through history, these tend to play out in longer time frames. If so, then yes, it is different this time.
I'm done selling for now. I'm overweight cash (15%) from where I really wanted to be in early retirement however, I didn't sell enough in the wife's accounts. She's at 5% cash. We're both just collecting almost all the dividends (a few DRIPs are still in place). Thankfully, as of now, we don't need to touch the IRAs for living expenses.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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Of the 26 names that I currently own and held through GFC, 18 increased their dividends, 6 were flat and 2 reduced their dividends.
![[Image: johndrockefeller1.jpg]](https://www.brainyquote.com/photos_tr/en/j/johndrockefeller/129792/johndrockefeller1.jpg)
