Top 10...2022 year end & 1-1-2023

[EricL]

My top ten positions as of the end of 2023.

AVGO 5.48%
WSO 3.87%
LOW 3.53%
MSFT 3.48%
EOG 2.96%
UNH 2.93%
XOM 2.86%
LMT 2.66%
ABBV 2.66%
CVX 2.60%

[ken-do-nim]

By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026. In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds. Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes. Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave. My first half year doing this was awesome.

[rayray]

(01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026.  In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds.  Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes.  Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave.  My first half year doing this was awesome.

I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.

[ken-do-nim]

(01-13-2024, 05:57 AM)rayray Wrote:

(01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026.  In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds.  Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes.  Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave.  My first half year doing this was awesome.

I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.

Sure that's a great point.  Toll Brothers went up 80% in the last year, but Broadcom went up 91% in the last year.  Pulte Group is up 105% in the last year, but Nvidia is up 209% in the last year.  However, Toll Brothers has a P/E of 8.20, Pulte Group 8.51, whereas Broadcom is 33.59 and Nvidia 72.24, and I think the best is yet to come for homebuilders.  That said, the last time I looked at Nvidia's P/E ratio, it was 120, so that's a legitimately awesome company.

And in all of this, quiet Eli Lilly just keeps printing money too. Up 79% in the past year, 451% in the past 5 years, and is just consistently up every day.  Admittedly the P/E is 116.

So that's pretty much my top 5 at the moment.

[rayray]

(01-14-2024, 09:33 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(01-13-2024, 05:57 AM)rayray Wrote:

(01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026.  In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds.  Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes.  Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave.  My first half year doing this was awesome.

I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.

Sure that's a great point.  Toll Brothers went up 80% in the last year, but Broadcom went up 91% in the last year.  Pulte Group is up 105% in the last year, but Nvidia is up 209% in the last year.  However, Toll Brothers has a P/E of 8.20, Pulte Group 8.51, whereas Broadcom is 33.59 and Nvidia 72.24, and I think the best is yet to come for homebuilders.  That said, the last time I looked at Nvidia's P/E ratio, it was 120, so that's a legitimately awesome company.

And in all of this, quiet Eli Lilly just keeps printing money too. Up 79% in the past year, 451% in the past 5 years, and is just consistently up every day.  Admittedly the P/E is 116.

So that's pretty much my top 5 at the moment.

Don't forget to look at the F/PE's--that's important too--when F/PE is lower than PE it's usually good

[ken-do-nim]

(01-20-2024, 08:17 AM)rayray Wrote:

(01-14-2024, 09:33 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(01-13-2024, 05:57 AM)rayray Wrote:

(01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026.  In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds.  Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes.  Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave.  My first half year doing this was awesome.

I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.

Sure that's a great point.  Toll Brothers went up 80% in the last year, but Broadcom went up 91% in the last year.  Pulte Group is up 105% in the last year, but Nvidia is up 209% in the last year.  However, Toll Brothers has a P/E of 8.20, Pulte Group 8.51, whereas Broadcom is 33.59 and Nvidia 72.24, and I think the best is yet to come for homebuilders.  That said, the last time I looked at Nvidia's P/E ratio, it was 120, so that's a legitimately awesome company.

And in all of this, quiet Eli Lilly just keeps printing money too. Up 79% in the past year, 451% in the past 5 years, and is just consistently up every day.  Admittedly the P/E is 116.

So that's pretty much my top 5 at the moment.

Don't forget to look at the F/PE's--that's important too--when F/PE is lower than PE it's usually good

Unreliable though.  Lemme see ... TSLA has a current P/E of 68, forward of 56, so that's good, except ... it's almost always wrong.

12/31/2022 - the p/e was 38, with a forward of 24.  Did they hit it?  No, on 3/32/2023, the p/e was 57, with a forward of 54.  Did they hit it?  No, on 6/30/2023, the p/e was 77, with a forward of 76.  Did they hit it?  Yes, on 9/30/2023, the p/e was 71, with a forward of 55.  Did they hit it?  No, because it's 68 today.  Chances are they won't hit the 56 that's forecast.

[rayray]

Tesla is a very hard company to analyze

For me it's an accumulation period stock holding, I'm taking a "risk" but think I will be well rewarded within the next 5 years.

[rayray]

NVDA has run away in the number one spot, it's beating the number 2 holding Alphabet by over 100k

[ken-do-nim]

(02-24-2024, 09:28 AM)rayray Wrote: NVDA has run away in the number one spot, it's beating the number 2 holding Alphabet by over 100k

On the flipside ...

NVDA's P/E is in the 60s
GOOG's P/E is in the 20s

Which is the better buy right now?  Hard to say.

[rayray]

(02-26-2024, 08:42 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: On the flipside ...

NVDA's P/E is in the 60s
GOOG's P/E is in the 20s

Which is the better buy right now?  Hard to say.

Hard to say, with momentum, future growth projections and a F/PE of 26 I'd say NVDA

GOOG F/PE is 17 with a lower growth outlook and some tailwinds with management with some flubs

it seems that Alphabet has become complacent in recent years--I know someone that works for Alphabet makes about 400k per year not including stock, I swear he never works--between vacations and his wife's yoga studio he's busy with everything but work--he fought tooth and nail not to report back to the office--well yea of course lol.

[rayray]

We're officially half way through 2024

Here's my Top 10 for the mid year

NVDA
GOOG/GOOGL
MSFT
AAPL
AMZN
XOM
TSLA
BX
BRK.B
UNH

I don't think the top ten has changed much as far as "the order" but the monetary value has increased. NVDA is the clear leader. I don't trade a lot, I tend to add, hold then add again. I will get rid of laggards, but it takes me time to do so. In the future, I might trim rather then sell out of the laggards unless they prove to be a complete disaster, or show no signs of growth.

VZ--NKE--SBUX--DIS

are holds but have been on the possible chopping block for years

out of 42 stocks the above four are my worst performers and have been for some time

I should break 30k in annual dividends if I don't make any changes, we'll see

If I would trim any of the top 10, maybe BX--I don't plan on trimming NVDA until it reaches 150 or so.

[EricL]

Here are my top ten at mid-year.

1. AVGO 7.24%
2. MSFT 4.02%
3. WSO 3.97%
4. LOW 3.22%
5. XOM 3.12%
6. EOG 2.94%
7. ABBV 2.78%
8. UNH 2.62%
9. CVX 2.60%
10. LMT 2.60%