VBIN's oil stock thread.

[EricL]

(03-04-2022, 11:30 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-04-2022, 09:33 PM)vbin Wrote: Brk loaded 30m additional oxy shares today. Oxy up 18%. Oil is still a play

That's an understatement.  Production is about to increase but it won't be fast enough.

No steel, no sand, no labor available for any meaningful increase in drilling.

Zero rigs added with today's Baker Hughes report.

[fenders53]

(03-04-2022, 11:56 PM)EricL Wrote:

(03-04-2022, 11:30 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-04-2022, 09:33 PM)vbin Wrote: Brk loaded 30m additional oxy shares today. Oxy up 18%. Oil is still a play

That's an understatement.  Production is about to increase but it won't be fast enough.

No steel, no sand, no labor available for any meaningful increase in drilling.

Zero rigs added with today's Baker Hughes report.

 I saw a different report on SA today.  Only US and Canada up 65 total. Rest of world down 27. It was also Baker Hughes cited. Still not fast enough. I think the article implies this is the monthly report for FEB.

I am going to sell a few oil puts a week I guess. They are pretty EZ money for months now. I don't want to miss all the fun. My EOG shares will be called away today.

[rnsmth]

(03-05-2022, 12:51 AM)fenders53 Wrote:  I saw a different report on SA today.  Only US and Canada up 65 total.  Rest of world down 27. It was also  Baker Hughes cited.  Still not fast enough.  I think the article implies this is the monthly report for FEB.

I am going to sell a few oil puts a week I guess.  They are pretty EZ money for months now.  I don't want to miss all the fun.  My EOG shares will be called away today.

I trimmed a little EOG yesterday and used the proceeds to add to AMGN.

EOG is still a overweight position, AMGN is a .4 weight position  

Here is a post of mine on EOG from another venue.

Early to bed, early to rise allowed me to focus on the recent EOG earnings call transcript. I am not the most experienced energy patch investor, so I entered the exercise with a large serving of humility.

Apparently they can cover the dividend at about $45 a barrel oil - and that is with their 83% increase in the regular dividend last year, plus a couple of special dividends in 2021 and the first special of 2022 ( $1 per share) coming at the end of March. 

This performance based on the average price of oil in 2021 of $68 a barrel. 

I suggest reading the earnings call transcript.

Here is one of the last bits from the transcript:  
+++

Third, we are committed to returning cash to shareholders. We demonstrated this through the return of nearly 50% of free cash flow last year, and this quarter's special dividend are (sic) third in less than a year. Doubling our regular dividend rate indicates our confidence in the durability of our future performance. The regular dividend is our preferred method to return cash to shareholders. And as we continue to increase the capital efficiency of EOG through low-cost operations and improved well performance, growth of the regular dividend will remain a priority. We truly believe the best is yet to come.

+++

Full transcript here  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4490639...transcript

[url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4490639-eog-resources-inc-eog-ceo-ezra-yacob-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript][/url]

[fenders53]

(03-05-2022, 09:05 AM)rnsmth Wrote:

(03-05-2022, 12:51 AM)fenders53 Wrote:  I saw a different report on SA today.  Only US and Canada up 65 total.  Rest of world down 27. It was also  Baker Hughes cited.  Still not fast enough.  I think the article implies this is the monthly report for FEB.

I am going to sell a few oil puts a week I guess.  They are pretty EZ money for months now.  I don't want to miss all the fun.  My EOG shares will be called away today.

I trimmed a little EOG yesterday and used the proceeds to add to AMGN.

EOG is still a overweight position, AMGN is a .4 weight position  

Here is a post of mine on EOG from another venue.

Early to bed, early to rise allowed me to focus on the recent EOG earnings call transcript. I am not the most experienced energy patch investor, so I entered the exercise with a large serving of humility.

Apparently they can cover the dividend at about $45 a barrel oil - and that is with their 83% increase in the regular dividend last year, plus a couple of special dividends in 2021 and the first special of 2022 ( $1 per share) coming at the end of March. 

This performance based on the average price of oil in 2021 of $68 a barrel. 

I suggest reading the earnings call transcript.

Here is one of the last bits from the transcript:  
+++

Third, we are committed to returning cash to shareholders. We demonstrated this through the return of nearly 50% of free cash flow last year, and this quarter's special dividend are (sic) third in less than a year. Doubling our regular dividend rate indicates our confidence in the durability of our future performance. The regular dividend is our preferred method to return cash to shareholders. And as we continue to increase the capital efficiency of EOG through low-cost operations and improved well performance, growth of the regular dividend will remain a priority. We truly believe the best is yet to come.

+++

Full transcript here  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4490639...transcript

[url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4490639-eog-resources-inc-eog-ceo-ezra-yacob-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript][/url]

That sounds good but EOG SP would be cut in half if oil got anywhere near 45.  EOG is a very good one though.  One of the best shalers.  Sad to see my shares leave but that is the down side to all the option premiums I collect.  This particular time it turned out about neutral.   I would add on a small dip. Otherwise I will just sell puts and collect more than a quarterly dividend every few weeks.   

Nobody thinks oil is going anything but up, but this week was parabolic.  Euphoric oil bull threads are everywhere so I'll expect some choppiness soon enough.  I remain bullish though.

[Mr1share]

The time to buy all these oil stocks was when everyone hated them and were investable. Now everyone is saying buy buy buy including Cramer. That's normally a sign that says get the hell out Every chat room says oil is going to $150 and its the only game in town. Something tells me the run will be over soon. Just be careful. Look at the run OXY has had when they almost went bankrupt lol

The market has given us buying opportunities in other sectors. Some great names are on sale. That's where I'm putting my money.

Financials have been coming down in recent weeks. I already added to WFC and ORI. This is one of the sectors I'm looking at next week.

Not saying oil wont run over the next few weeks or months. But the easy money has already been made.

[fenders53]

(03-05-2022, 12:21 PM)Mr1share Wrote: The time to buy all these oil stocks was when everyone hated them and were investable. Now everyone is saying buy buy buy including Cramer. That's normally a sign that says get the hell out Every chat room says oil is going to $150 and its the only game in town. Something tells me the run will be over soon. Just be careful. Look at the run OXY has had when they almost went bankrupt lol

The market has given us buying opportunities in other sectors. Some great names are on sale. That's where I'm putting my money.

Financials have been coming down in recent weeks. I already added to WFC and ORI. This is one of the sectors I'm looking at next week.

Not saying oil wont run over the next few weeks or months. But the easy money has already been made.

Where have you been?  The participants on this thread did buy them then, and well before.  We've shed some blood but it's been very good for quite some time.  I'll taper my investment but not quite yet.      

Why you buying WFC now? You miss the bottom? 

[EricL]

The U.S. to announce a ban on Russian energy imports, crude over $125.

   

New England is going to suffer big-time as they are cut off from the rest of the US due to Jones Act rules on oil shipping and lack of pipeline capacity.

[fenders53]

Sold another EOG put this morning literally ten minutes before an analyst downgraded it. Oh well, I can live with a 115 strike before ex-div date.

[vbin]

(03-08-2022, 09:44 AM)EricL Wrote: The U.S. to announce a ban on Russian energy imports, crude over $125.



New England is going to suffer big-time as they are cut off from the rest of the US due to Jones Act rules on oil shipping and lack of pipeline capacity.

Did not knew about this. Where did you find the his info Eric?

[vbin]

(03-08-2022, 01:35 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Sold another EOG put this morning literally ten minutes before an analyst downgraded it. Oh well, I can live with a 115 strike before ex-div date.

We might see some crazy swings on any news at these levels.

[fenders53]

(03-08-2022, 11:46 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-08-2022, 01:35 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Sold another EOG put this morning literally ten minutes before an analyst downgraded it.   Oh well, I can live with a 115 strike before ex-div date.

We might see some crazy swings on any news at these levels.

That is highly likely.  It's not good that oil now trades like crypto.  We are on the fast track to demand destruction.  I hope some normalcy returns soon.  The war will keep things unstable for an unknown period of time.  I expect some 10% moves in the near future and I don't think all of them will be up. What a crazy few weeks.

[stockguru]

I think the run is over. All these oil stocks were way over bought. The time to get in them was weeks or months ago. Buying the past few days was just asking for trouble. Hope Eric took his profits ?

Same with LMT and NOC. Those ran up way too fast as well and the last few days have made the top shorted list.