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TWEET
Quote:Alexander Stahel
@BurggrabenH
·
2h
The global crude inventory declines by 16.4mb last week, AGAIN. That is 2.3 million barrels per day!
Add in outages in Libya and Colombia and OPEC coming nowhere close to meeting their quotas.
Mexico also announced that they plan to ban crude exports in 2023.
2022 is going to be an interesting year in the energy markets.
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(01-03-2022, 12:03 PM)EricL Wrote: TWEET
Quote:Alexander Stahel
@BurggrabenH
·
2h
The global crude inventory declines by 16.4mb last week, AGAIN. That is 2.3 million barrels per day!
Add in outages in Libya and Colombia and OPEC coming nowhere close to meeting their quotas.
Mexico also announced that they plan to ban crude exports in 2023.
2022 is going to be an interesting year in the energy markets.
It will be. Somebody is going to drill or frack, but it won't likely be enough to matter much until at least late in the year. (Let's hope it's EOG lol) Covid is absolutely going to slow things down for the next few months. If inventories don't recover now it's trouble. As long as oil doesn't get so high to hurt the economy I'm good. Otherwise we just lose the money elsewhere in our ports.
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Is there a way to see global inventory level chart?
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Research note on CPG.
Quote:Absolute Debt Reduction Results in Materially Improved Balance Sheet: Since the current CEO took charge in 2018, absolute net debt has been reduced by approximately half. Given our significant FCF forecast through 2022, we forecast YE-2022E D/CF of 0.7x (vs. 1.4x at YE-2021). In our view, as D/CF falls below 1.0x in H1/22E, more FCF could be allocated to shareholder returns.
Further Shareholder Returns (Dividends/Buybacks) Likely in 2022+: In 2021, Crescent Point announced two dividend increases, which brought the yield to ~2.5% from nearly nil (based on recent increase payable in April). In 2022E, its current dividend only consumes 5% of CF and 11% of FCF. This leaves significant unallocated FCF for incremental return of capital announcements. For example, if CPG was to return 50% of FCF to shareholders, we estimate this would equate to 10% of the current market cap, while still allowing for $426mm of debt reduction throughout the year.
Near-term Catalysts Have Power to Create Value and Transform Perceptions: Recall CPG bought the Duvernay asset from Shell in February 2021 and subsequently announced a farm-in arrangement with an undisclosed counterparty in Q3/21. To-date, the company has disclosed that capital cost of its new Duverney wells drilled thus far came in ~$1.5mm below expectations (despite more intensive completions). Looking ahead, Crescent Point should have three Duverney wells on stream by the end of Q1, and results from these wells should complete the economics picture and, in our view, materially de-risk its move into the play.
Beyond simply providing well results, strong oil rates from the Duvernay should:
1) contribute to strong flush production in Q1/22E and
2) provide the company with a large oilweighted asset with high rate wells in a play with scale.
TD Investment Conclusion: We encourage investors to revisit CPG, as we believe it offers a strong conventional oil-weighted asset base, material FCF, comfortable leverage, a sustainable base dividend (with room to grow), and near-term Duvernay catalysts at a low valuation. For these reasons, we are increasing our rating to ACTION LIST BUY (from Buy).
Price Target: $12/Plus
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Crude oil close to $81. Xle on the way to $70
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01-11-2022, 03:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2022, 03:25 PM by fenders53.)
(01-11-2022, 03:21 PM)vbin Wrote: Sold some xle
Is it at $70 already? 
Glad I let you and Eric talk me into this oil thing. I am down to EOG and ENB though. I'll need another dip if I want to keep playing, and I do for the summer anyway.
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EOG up another 4% today.
Moves it past ABT to the #10 largest portfolio position.
Another day like today and it will pass TGT and UNH.
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(01-11-2022, 04:16 PM)EricL Wrote: EOG up another 4% today.
Moves it past ABT to the #10 largest portfolio position.
Another day like today and it will pass TGT and UNH.
Tomorrow is the last day to get the Div so it might be an up day. Sector is getting overbought for sure. I'd like to make one more entry into oil before I stop liking the risk reward. I may have to sell puts a few months out so I can't get forced into shares quite this high. Somehow I have this feeling EOG is heading for $120 but I'm not going to burn myself again this cycle getting too optimistic.
I thought I would die of old age before XOM every saw 80 again and it looks good if WTI got stuck near here. Is KMI back to $42 yet? Kidding, that's not actually funny. 
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That dip didn't last long, guess they better release some more crude from the SPR!
WTI back over $84 today.
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If they are smart they wont dump SPR on a non shortage like we have today. This is FOMO and they better save some powder for summer. I am pretty sure they will need it then.
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Can we call it green energy when it's the only sector that not red today?
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