2021 Portfolio Review

[ken-do-nim]

So instead of a Med cruise (I'm not a cruise person but this would be an exception), this summer will be Yellowstone, just after Labor Day.

Cruises are awesome, but Yellowstone is a must. I hope to get out there soon too. Hopefully 2023.

If you keep making 50% a year in your port maybe you can pay it off a little early. Just add some more leverage lol.

I do occasionally have fun with the investment calculators lol. Let's see ... yeah if I make 50% a year it says I end up with $50 million in 10 years

If I move out of my house in 4-5 years, I will either convert it to a rental or sell it. Chad's advice was to sell, though I have to recall the reasoning. If I'm renting it, the rent will more than cover the mortgage. I pay about $2200 a month on it, and if it were today, I would try to rent it for $3500/month. In the unlikely event I remain living here long term, I will have to run the numbers to see if paying off the mortgage say 15 years early is better than keeping that money in the market.

[cemanuel]

(01-02-2022, 09:16 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: So instead of a Med cruise (I'm not a cruise person but this would be an exception), this summer will be Yellowstone, just after Labor Day.

Cruises are awesome, but Yellowstone is a must.  I hope to get out there soon too.  Hopefully 2023.

If you keep making 50% a year in your port maybe you can pay it off a little early.  Just add some more leverage lol.

I do occasionally have fun with the investment calculators lol.  Let's see ... yeah if I make 50% a year it says I end up with $50 million in 10 years

If I move out of my house in 4-5 years, I will either convert it to a rental or sell it.  Chad's advice was to sell, though I have to recall the reasoning.  If I'm renting it, the rent will more than cover the mortgage.  I pay about $2200 a month on it, and if it were today, I would try to rent it for $3500/month.  In the unlikely event I remain living here long term, I will have to run the numbers to see if paying off the mortgage say 15 years early is better than keeping that money in the market.

I made about 33% last year, not 50%. Doesn't matter though. I could write a check to pay off the mortgage today without much trouble though I'd have to sell a few things. The interest rate is 3.125%. Basically free money. Fee simple fixed rate interest at a touch over 3%? Not paying a dime of that early.

[fenders53]

(01-02-2022, 09:16 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: So instead of a Med cruise (I'm not a cruise person but this would be an exception), this summer will be Yellowstone, just after Labor Day.

Cruises are awesome, but Yellowstone is a must.  I hope to get out there soon too.  Hopefully 2023.

If you keep making 50% a year in your port maybe you can pay it off a little early.  Just add some more leverage lol.

I do occasionally have fun with the investment calculators lol.  Let's see ... yeah if I make 50% a year it says I end up with $50 million in 10 years

If I move out of my house in 4-5 years, I will either convert it to a rental or sell it.  Chad's advice was to sell, though I have to recall the reasoning.  If I'm renting it, the rent will more than cover the mortgage.  I pay about $2200 a month on it, and if it were today, I would try to rent it for $3500/month.  In the unlikely event I remain living here long term, I will have to run the numbers to see if paying off the mortgage say 15 years early is better than keeping that money in the market.

I completely understand the logic that investing in the market has easily paid of for you vs retiring a low interest mortgage.  I faced different circumstances in the 1980s.  A 10% mortgage and a bad economy.  I worked hard to retire my first mortgage in about 13 years.  Built a modest new home and retired that mortgage in about 12.  Bought a rental house and used all the income to retire that mortgage.  Could I have made more money in the stock market?  For much of that time period no.  The market was rough and my skillset less than now.  

One thing I can promise you.  Sitting there at age 55 debt free gave me options.  If real estate crashed I'd be OK.  If my income dropped I'd be OK.  I'd probably try to rent your house.  You can change your mind in a couple years if it isn't for you.  In the meantime you'll build some equity.  

And yes the investment calculators are fun.  My projected path was nice and linear. My reality an unending S pattern. 

[cemanuel]

One more image. Went to the Fidelity Performance Page and found this for my 2021 Returns. You'll notice how just plain "sucky" the Roth returns were for a longer-term where it included REITs and BDCs. That didn't bother me. I knew slow growth was a characteristic of those types of investments. But it is nice seeing the response once I switched that early this year.

The 3-year number for the Taxable account may not mean much; I believe it for the Roth. I originally had two accounts; one being labeled speculative. In early 2019 I had mystery withdrawals from my main account and ended up having to close it and put all the money into the spec account - by then I was no longer spec investing - so this didn't keep happening. You can read the details a little past halfway through this post: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48196...f-fidelity

I seriously thought about switching brokerages until, after calling around, I realized everyone did things this way. However it messed up tracking performance back before March, 2019 for my Taxable Account.

Anyway, on to the image:

   

[fenders53]

Anything defensive looks like a mistake when the bull is running, but they served a purpose and the returns were respectable.

[rayray]

(01-02-2022, 12:03 PM)cemanuel Wrote: One more image. Went to the Fidelity Performance Page and found this for my 2021 Returns. You'll notice how just plain "sucky" the Roth returns were for a longer-term where it included REITs and BDCs. That didn't bother me. I knew slow growth was a characteristic of those types of investments. But it is nice seeing the response once I switched that early this year.

The 3-year number for the Taxable account may not mean much; I believe it for the Roth. I originally had two accounts; one being labeled speculative. In early 2019 I had mystery withdrawals from my main account and ended up having to close it and put all the money into the spec account - by then I was no longer spec investing - so this didn't keep happening. You can read the details a little past halfway through this post: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48196...f-fidelity

I seriously thought about switching brokerages until, after calling around, I realized everyone did things this way. However it messed up tracking performance back before March, 2019 for my Taxable Account.

Anyway, on to the image:

Great returns!!

I went to the link and that blows my mind!!

Been using Fidelity for years and never had any issues, I have to double check but I think I have the extra security set up to withdrawal funds, or maybe even locked? I forget—I vaguely remember doing something.

A good thing to put on a news years check list, go over all account security settings and beneficiary information.

Years ago there was a update and it inadvertently removed everyone’s beneficiaries in our work plan—could have been devastating for someone’s family.

[cemanuel]

I have to double check but I think I have the extra security set up to withdrawal funds, or maybe even locked? I forget—I vaguely remember doing something.

I have that turned on - it wasn't an option then. You read it so I won't bother - oh heck, guess I will. Thought it was crazy that Fidelity left it to me to contact Barclay's about it - who am I that they should believe me about account details? I'm not exactly over it but after contacting Schwab and a couple of others about switching, seems they all handle those situations similarly so I just stuck with Fidelity.

[rayray]

(01-02-2022, 04:24 PM)cemanuel Wrote: I have to double check but I think I have the extra security set up to withdrawal funds, or maybe even locked? I forget—I vaguely remember doing something.

I have that turned on - it wasn't an option then. You read it so I won't bother - oh heck, guess I will. Thought it was crazy that Fidelity left it to me to contact Barclay's about it - who am I that they should believe me about account details? I'm not exactly over it but after contacting Schwab and a couple of others about switching, seems they all handle those situations similarly so I just stuck with Fidelity.

i'd be going NUTS

years ago i went from one wireless carrier to another--after i was with the other carrier for about 3 years the first carrier sent me a bill saying i owed them, i forget, hundreds and hundreds of dollars--i was like--hey buddy--i haven't been a customer for almost 3 years!! after going from one customer agent to another to another they were like oh yea--we see that you cancelled but it didn't go all the way through on our end--and how's that my problem??

i'm getting nuts just thinking about it and i didn't have to pay anything

gawd

good luck!!

i can't wait to retire and just stay in my room

[cemanuel]

i'd be going NUTS

Ever since, every day, I check my account including the "Activity and Orders" tab. I may be swamped and the five minutes I take to do this may be the only thought I give to my investments but I do that. Every. Single. Day. One of the reasons I'm sorry SA Blogs are going away is when there's a discussion about how often to check portfolios and many people - reasonably - say they think once a month or even once a quarter is reasonable - is I have that link to provide, explaining why I do this.

It was a cold, hard, disbelieving shock to see it.

[cemanuel]

(01-01-2022, 10:41 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Up and to the right, just like we like it.    You have steady dividend growth and of course you are in control of the yield.  Mne has been choppy the past 5 years as I was experimenting with this style of investing.   I was a growth investor before and will tip toe a bit back in that direction to find my happy place.  

And I noticed you mentioned "organic" growth.  It is a useful term when discussing year over year performance.   I lowered my yield at least a half point this year.  It would be inaccurate to say that was a failure.  Nor would it necessarily be a big win if I sell all my FANG stocks and  buy 10,000 shares of XOM next week.  I would like to see that dividend payout post though.  

Fidelity Statements were available this morning. This is comparing the projected cash flows (from dividends - they title the column "Stock Income") from 12/31/20 with the one listed on 12/31/21.

Taxable Account: Projected 2022 cash flows are 9.87% above those of 2021

Roth: Two ways of looking at it - either my 2022 projected cash flows were reduced by 51.52% from the 2021 projection or my 2021 projected cash flows were 106.27% of those projected for 2022.