Quote for the Day - - John Maynard Keynes

[EricL]

FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

[fenders53]

(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

SPY is up about 27-28% YTD I believe.  DOW is less.  NAS up maybe 23%?  Your port has that risk vs reward thing I mentioned and very much desire.  Solid div growth and good balance sheets that will survive crisis.  Currently 4-5 stocks comprise about 25% of the market weighted SPY and about 50% of the NAS which is more than a little frightening IMO.  It scares me because I know the LT average total return for stocks has been 8-10% since forever.  I am not looking forward to reverting to the mean but it will surely happen.  Below average investors are very happy right now because it is hard to fail.    

I think we are smart to prepare ourselves for average times.  For a very long time I recommended young investors go all in on SPY with a NAS or Russell 2K  kicker and close your eyes.  That will be good advice again someday but I'm not so sure it is right now.    To my knowledge five stocks have never dominated the indexes to this degree.  Is that the new normal forever?  I don't know.

[EricL]

(12-11-2021, 11:52 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

SPY is up about 27-28% YTD I believe.  DOW is less.  NAS up maybe 23%?  Your port has that risk vs reward thing I mentioned and very much desire.  Solid div growth and good balance sheets that will survive crisis.  Currently 4-5 stocks comprise about 25% of the market weighted SPY and about 50% of the NAS which is more than a little frightening IMO.  It scares me because I know the LT average total return for stocks has been 8-10% since forever.  I am not looking forward to reverting to the mean but it will surely happen.  Below average investors are very happy right now because it is hard to fail.    

I think we are smart to prepare ourselves for average times.  For a very long time I recommended young investors go all in on SPY with a NAS or Russell 2K  kicker and close your eyes.  That will be good advice again someday but I'm not so sure it is right now.    To my knowledge five stocks have never dominated the indexes to this degree.  Is that the new normal forever?  I don't know.

AAPL and MSFT have a combined market cap of $5.5T. It's getting really difficult to resist trimming them again, as that has been the wrong move every time I've done it...

[fenders53]

(12-11-2021, 11:15 AM)EricL Wrote: Keep in mind that the originally posted comment was made in 1934 before the internet and online brokerages. It is MUCH easier to learn about and know a company now than it was 85 years ago. Research reports that used to cost $100's of dollars are now available free with your brokerage account. It's also much cheaper to own stock now than it was back then. With zero transaction costs and no account fees, there's no hurdle to owning many companies at little cost.

Personally, I like owning a wide breadth of companies across many sectors. With 1000's of stocks to choose from across 11 sectors, even owning 100 stocks can be done while still owning quality companies. I own roughly 80 companies across three portfolios, and I think casting a wide net has allowed me to own winning stocks that I'd have missed otherwise if I held a concentrated portfolio.

Some of my best stocks like NVDA, TTD, LOW, UNH, BLK, SQ, ETSY, TSCO, ZTS, SHOP, FB, DLR, AVGO were bought long after I built my original 50 stock portfolio. Had I stayed concentrated and not spread out to other ideas, I'd have missed out on some nice gains.

That said, I can see why people concentrate their holdings on what they are comfortable and familiar with.

I can see whittling down names when nearing retirement like Fenders is doing now, but for someone in their 20's, 30's, 40's, I think it's good to cast a wide net and try to find some home runs. It only takes one or two big winners to make a difference in a portfolio.

I am loving this weekend forum traffic.  I think 100 stocks is a recipe to underperform at anytime, but I admit you won't get killed vs the market.  I see no advantage over buying an index.  Timing is everything.  Buying random stocks with a good story can pay off when liquidity is historically high by a large margin.  None of us have ever seen this so it's all speculation what happens next.

If I am angering anyone new to my posts it's not my intent.  Eric knows my game.  If I incite a debate that would be fine.  I'm certainly not always right.  If this forum's members were forced to own only 25 stocks, I think they would do just fine because they would be forced to lose their weak holdings they are wishing would recover.

[rnsmth]

(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

Ours are up 19%, but our portfolio wide yield was a bit over 3 times that of the S&P.

In my view, in metrics important to me, I am doing better than the S&P 500.

[cemanuel]

(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

My taxable account is up 22.49%
My Roth is up 27.14%

I subtract added cash from those but I include dividends received/reinvested, etc.

[fenders53]

(12-11-2021, 12:03 PM)EricL Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 11:52 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

SPY is up about 27-28% YTD I believe.  DOW is less.  NAS up maybe 23%?  Your port has that risk vs reward thing I mentioned and very much desire.  Solid div growth and good balance sheets that will survive crisis.  Currently 4-5 stocks comprise about 25% of the market weighted SPY and about 50% of the NAS which is more than a little frightening IMO.  It scares me because I know the LT average total return for stocks has been 8-10% since forever.  I am not looking forward to reverting to the mean but it will surely happen.  Below average investors are very happy right now because it is hard to fail.    

I think we are smart to prepare ourselves for average times.  For a very long time I recommended young investors go all in on SPY with a NAS or Russell 2K  kicker and close your eyes.  That will be good advice again someday but I'm not so sure it is right now.    To my knowledge five stocks have never dominated the indexes to this degree.  Is that the new normal forever?  I don't know.

AAPL and MSFT have a combined market cap of $5.5T. It's getting really difficult to resist trimming them again, as that has been the wrong move every time I've done it...

I trim winners slowly.  It reduces the remorse if I mistime it.

[ken-do-nim]

(12-11-2021, 01:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 12:03 PM)EricL Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 11:52 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

SPY is up about 27-28% YTD I believe.  DOW is less.  NAS up maybe 23%?  Your port has that risk vs reward thing I mentioned and very much desire.  Solid div growth and good balance sheets that will survive crisis.  Currently 4-5 stocks comprise about 25% of the market weighted SPY and about 50% of the NAS which is more than a little frightening IMO.  It scares me because I know the LT average total return for stocks has been 8-10% since forever.  I am not looking forward to reverting to the mean but it will surely happen.  Below average investors are very happy right now because it is hard to fail.    

I think we are smart to prepare ourselves for average times.  For a very long time I recommended young investors go all in on SPY with a NAS or Russell 2K  kicker and close your eyes.  That will be good advice again someday but I'm not so sure it is right now.    To my knowledge five stocks have never dominated the indexes to this degree.  Is that the new normal forever?  I don't know.

AAPL and MSFT have a combined market cap of $5.5T. It's getting really difficult to resist trimming them again, as that has been the wrong move every time I've done it...

I trim winners slowly.  It reduces the remorse if I mistime it.

Put me in the "you can pry my Apple & Microsoft shares from my cold dead body" camp.

[cemanuel]

(12-11-2021, 01:53 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 01:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 12:03 PM)EricL Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 11:52 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-11-2021, 11:23 AM)EricL Wrote: FWIW, my public DGI portfolio is up 22.4% in value this year. I don't know how that compares to the DOW or S&P, but that will work for me.

SPY is up about 27-28% YTD I believe.  DOW is less.  NAS up maybe 23%?  Your port has that risk vs reward thing I mentioned and very much desire.  Solid div growth and good balance sheets that will survive crisis.  Currently 4-5 stocks comprise about 25% of the market weighted SPY and about 50% of the NAS which is more than a little frightening IMO.  It scares me because I know the LT average total return for stocks has been 8-10% since forever.  I am not looking forward to reverting to the mean but it will surely happen.  Below average investors are very happy right now because it is hard to fail.    

I think we are smart to prepare ourselves for average times.  For a very long time I recommended young investors go all in on SPY with a NAS or Russell 2K  kicker and close your eyes.  That will be good advice again someday but I'm not so sure it is right now.    To my knowledge five stocks have never dominated the indexes to this degree.  Is that the new normal forever?  I don't know.

AAPL and MSFT have a combined market cap of $5.5T. It's getting really difficult to resist trimming them again, as that has been the wrong move every time I've done it...

I trim winners slowly.  It reduces the remorse if I mistime it.

Put me in the "you can pry my Apple & Microsoft shares from my cold dead body" camp.

I'll sell AAPL, plan to actually. The last 3 dividend increases have been disappointing. Not worth keeping in an account designed to generate dividend income. Agree on MSFT and will keep agreeing while they deliver double-digit dividend increases..

It's very possible that at the same time as I'm trimming Apple from the Taxable Account I'll be buying it in the IRA, where the goal is Total Returns.

[fenders53]

I think they will both be good dividend stocks some day but they just can't keep up with the SP now. Someday growth slows and investors will care more about the initial yield. If they both canceled their dividend tomorrow I'm not sure the market would care a month later.