What are your winners & losers today?

[fenders53]

Hard to beat the index funds when the market just goes up. They are the reason I partially retired early. As long as you didn't get crazy with small caps it's been hard to lose for 18 months. As you know this is what excess liquidity does. We'll have some sideways years before we know it. Hopefully not for a while. I try to tell myself 2018-19 was far more normal than 2020-21 when I allocate my port. And if I am wrong, well that would be great.

[fenders53]

I guess I'll do my weekly update early as work will keep me away from the market tomorrow. Started off with a new ATH and faded back to no progress. My conservative income strategy was a little slow with only about $900 new income this week. Too bad I am going to lose about $1100 tomorrow on my HD earnings day short trick. I guess I need the gambling lecture now. I only short in any form about twice a year. I think I am on about a four short trade losing streak so I should probably stick to the boring stuff I am more confident with.

[ken-do-nim]

Shorting is something I've never tried.

[fenders53]

(11-18-2021, 06:04 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Shorting is something I've never tried.

Leave it that way.  This was a defined risk trade.  Most I could lose was about $1100 worst cases and likely to yield a few hundred bucks profit in a couple hours as it has before.  It went as bad as it could have.  A normal naked short at my entry point would be down over $5K in two days.  With a normal short you could try to ride it out but HD is in full MOMO mode.

[ken-do-nim]

I will. If I were to try shorting, I'd probably short BABA or IBM and watch them have their first rallies in like, forever.

***

As far as ye old port goes, I'm sure everyone is aware it's a very special time to be triple leveraged up the wazoo in tech.
Stockguru: "And I know your gaga over SOXL but don't expect it to hit 100 by Dec."
SOXL: "Hold my beer..."

[fenders53]

(11-18-2021, 07:52 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I will.  If I were to try shorting, I'd probably short BABA or IBM and watch them have their first rallies in like, forever.

***

As far as ye old port goes, I'm sure everyone is aware it's a very special time to be triple leveraged up the wazoo in tech.
Stockguru: "And I know your gaga over SOXL but don't expect it to hit 100 by Dec."
SOXL: "Hold my beer..."

Chips are on fire.  Not  exactly sure why as they can only deliver what they can now but we enjoy our wins when they come.  It will rotate to something different soon and hopefully we own it.

[ken-do-nim]

(11-18-2021, 07:58 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-18-2021, 07:52 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I will.  If I were to try shorting, I'd probably short BABA or IBM and watch them have their first rallies in like, forever.

***

As far as ye old port goes, I'm sure everyone is aware it's a very special time to be triple leveraged up the wazoo in tech.
Stockguru: "And I know your gaga over SOXL but don't expect it to hit 100 by Dec."
SOXL: "Hold my beer..."

Chips are on fire.  Not  exactly sure why as they can only deliver what they can now but we enjoy our wins when they come.  It will rotate to something different soon and hopefully we own it.

An anonymous poster on the SOXL board summed up my thoughts nicely: "semis are the new oil. we are in transition of a 4th industrial revolution just before AI, cloud everything, IoT, and 5g take off. semis are the life blood of any modern economy. there's no slowing the demand down for.many, many years. ."

[rayray]

nvda/RBLX/MTTR

Have been doing well

tdoc/atvi/Sam

Have been taking some hits

Some I’ve been buying some I’ve been holding others, not hard to figure out which is which

[fenders53]

(11-18-2021, 09:18 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(11-18-2021, 07:58 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-18-2021, 07:52 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I will.  If I were to try shorting, I'd probably short BABA or IBM and watch them have their first rallies in like, forever.

***

As far as ye old port goes, I'm sure everyone is aware it's a very special time to be triple leveraged up the wazoo in tech.
Stockguru: "And I know your gaga over SOXL but don't expect it to hit 100 by Dec."
SOXL: "Hold my beer..."

Chips are on fire.  Not  exactly sure why as they can only deliver what they can now but we enjoy our wins when they come.  It will rotate to something different soon and hopefully we own it.

An anonymous poster on the SOXL board summed up my thoughts nicely: "semis are the new oil. we are in transition of a 4th industrial revolution just before AI, cloud everything, IoT, and 5g take off. semis are the life blood of any modern economy. there's no slowing the demand down for.many, many years. ."

Sounds good until too many suppliers show up, so yes similar to oil.

[ken-do-nim]

Just came across this article espousing SOXL and TECL for the holiday shopping season.

[fenders53]

Every year more routine products become at least low tech so I suppose it could follow peak retail.

Remember not long back when you said end of year 2022 into 2023 for semis to surge? That prediction actually made sense but here we are. Do they have chips to sell or not? I actually think the low tech chip shortage will be over soon. Seems impossible for the high end to be solved soon as long as demand remains high.

[ken-do-nim]

(11-20-2021, 06:23 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Remember not long back when you said end of year 2022 into 2023 for semis to surge?  That prediction actually made sense but here we are.    Do they have chips to sell or not?  I actually think the low tech chip shortage will be over soon. Seems impossible for the high end to be solved soon as long as demand remains high.

Yeah, at the first sign of the chip shortage easing, they surged.  I expect chip stocks to stay in favor into, well, as far as I can see with my crystal ball.  From a pure growth perspective, NVDA is the champion, but from a DGI perspective, AVGO remains the king.

Amusing story.  One of my best friends got a job at Analog Devices here in the Boston area after college.  He worked there for about 10 years, had enough, quit, and moved around to the various chip companies here.  Recently, the company he was working for was bought out by Analog, so he's back to where he started.