DGI Forum Yield Trap Index

[bankerboy]

AbbVie….


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[fenders53]

(10-25-2021, 06:45 AM)bankerboy Wrote: AbbVie….


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It's on now!  You trying to get banned?



We'll see what happens if/when the revenue growth goes negative. I think PFE or MRK may be a better choice for pharma. I've owned both. This is nothing personal. PFE for 25 years was a mediocre decision at best.

And I misspoke above. This is NOT a list of the ten worst stocks one could own. Most of us own some of them and that's OK. But if they dominate your top ten core holdings???? I think that is probably a straw man on this forum. Let's try to finish this by the end of November and we can run a few back tests.

[bankerboy]

I don’t own any…. Yet! Waiting until the impact of the patent is better known. Thinking they will be a deal in a couple years however…

Their 10 year total return is pretty nice, would be good to see even half that over the next 10 years. Lots of folks think this is the best thing since sliced bread!


But OK, let’s go with Duke!


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[bankerboy]

What if my core holdings are all primarily index mutual funds, does that mean I’m ineligible to play?


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[EricL]

SO and DUK for utilities.

WBA, KO and KMB for staples.

XOM and KMI for energy.

MMM for industrial.

IBM and INTC for tech.

T and VZ for telcom.

NNN and WPC for real estate.

PFE and CAH for health care.

[fenders53]

(10-25-2021, 08:31 AM)bankerboy Wrote: What if my core holdings are all primarily index mutual funds, does that mean I’m ineligible to play?


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Don't let me bully you.....

But it's not our fault you can't pick stocks.    

Seriously though I see no case that Abbvie is value trap vs competitors.  I think the best trap candidates can be found looking back about 10 years.

[fenders53]

(10-25-2021, 08:39 AM)EricL Wrote: SO and DUK for utilities.

WBA, KO and KMB for staples.

XOM and KMI for energy.

MMM for industrial.

IBM and INTC for tech.

T and VZ for telcom.

NNN and WPC for real estate.

PFE and CAH for health care.

I mostly like that list.  I might suggest... 

PPL or ED are solid over Duke. Let's ignore skip the California nightmares UTEs.

MRK and PFE are close I think.  Maybe not.  PFE hs sime great cash flow coming for a couple years.  MRK mostly punted on the vaccine thing.  I don't know their pipeline.        

KO is a good pick for staples.  KHC and CPB should be considered.  We'll get more opinions.  I don't have to agree with all of them, and I am definitely unqualified to judge Real Estate.

[fenders53]

(10-25-2021, 08:29 AM)bankerboy Wrote:

I don’t own any…. Yet! Waiting until the impact of the patent is better known. Thinking they will be a deal in a couple years however…

Their 10 year total return is pretty nice, would be good to see even half that over the next 10 years. Lots of folks think this is the best thing since sliced bread!


But OK, let’s go with Duke!


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Honesty I think you better buy Abbvie right the next few years as it is highly likely to churn on you.  Humira is about the most profitable drug ever. They need a few blockbusters to replace it.

[ken-do-nim]

(10-25-2021, 09:23 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-25-2021, 08:29 AM)bankerboy Wrote:

I don’t own any…. Yet! Waiting until the impact of the patent is better known. Thinking they will be a deal in a couple years however…

Their 10 year total return is pretty nice, would be good to see even half that over the next 10 years. Lots of folks think this is the best thing since sliced bread!


But OK, let’s go with Duke!


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Honesty I think you better buy Abbvie right the next few years as it is highly likely to churn on you.  Humira is about the most profitable drug ever. They need a few blockbusters to replace it.

I think Veliparib is what might be their next biggie.

[bankerboy]

(10-25-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-25-2021, 08:31 AM)bankerboy Wrote: What if my core holdings are all primarily index mutual funds, does that mean I’m ineligible to play?


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Don't let me bully you.....

But it's not our fault you can't pick stocks.    

Seriously though I see no case that Abbvie is value trap vs competitors.  I think the best trap candidates can be found looking back about 10 years.

That was funny but somewhat true!

And Yes I was messing with you AbbVie will likely be a value trap for a few years once the patent loss sinks the price in what 2023 or so?


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