The Speculative Stocks....

[fenders53]

Thanks. I will check out the rest of the presentation soon.

[NilesMike]

I've held this back out of fear what Ken- do- nim might do with, no disrespect intended Ken.

Backtested from 1/2010 (TQQQ inception) to 2/2020 then went live.

Go long TQQQ after VIX closes> 30 then closes <30 on 2 consecutive days. Enter on open of Day 3. Exit when VIX closes>30, at next day's open.

That's it.
Backtested for 10 trades, return 2,370% (no typo)
Went live 5/12/2020 for 7 trades (last one still alive), return 345% to date, could go higher or lower depending on close of current trade.

Trade it small, 10K at onset, 5/2/2010 is currently 668,195 (compounded). From 5/12/2020, 10K is 44,455

[fenders53]

(10-19-2021, 09:30 PM)NilesMike Wrote: I've held this back out of fear what Ken do rim might do with, no disrespect intended Ken.

Backtested from 1/2010 (TQQQ inception) to 2/2020 then went live.

Go long TQQQ after VIX closes> 30 then closes <30 on 2 consecutive days. Enter on open of Day 3. Exit when VIX closes>30

That's it.
Backtested for 10 trades, return 2,370% (no typo)
Went live 5/12/2020 for 7 trades (last one still alive), return 345% to date, could go higher or lower depending on close of current trade.

Trade it small, 10K at onset, 5/2/2020 is currently 668,195 (compounded)

Those returns should work.  

[ken-do-nim]

(10-19-2021, 09:30 PM)NilesMike Wrote: I've held this back out of fear what Ken- do- nim might do with, no disrespect intended Ken.

Backtested from 1/2010 (TQQQ inception) to 2/2020 then went live.

Go long TQQQ after VIX closes> 30 then closes <30 on 2 consecutive days. Enter on open of Day 3. Exit when VIX closes>30, at next day's open.

That's it.
Backtested for 10 trades, return 2,370% (no typo)
Went live 5/12/2020 for 7 trades (last one still alive), return 345% to date, could go higher or lower depending on close of current trade.

Trade it small, 10K at onset, 5/2/2010 is currently 668,195 (compounded). From 5/12/2020, 10K is 44,455

Good to know about the VIX trick!

My March/April 2020 TECL purchase of $1,627 is now worth $10,143.

[fenders53]

(10-20-2021, 09:14 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(10-19-2021, 09:30 PM)NilesMike Wrote: I've held this back out of fear what Ken- do- nim might do with, no disrespect intended Ken.

Backtested from 1/2010 (TQQQ inception) to 2/2020 then went live.

Go long TQQQ after VIX closes> 30 then closes <30 on 2 consecutive days. Enter on open of Day 3. Exit when VIX closes>30, at next day's open.

That's it.
Backtested for 10 trades, return 2,370% (no typo)
Went live 5/12/2020 for 7 trades (last one still alive), return 345% to date, could go higher or lower depending on close of current trade.

Trade it small, 10K at onset, 5/2/2010 is currently 668,195 (compounded). From 5/12/2020, 10K is 44,455

Good to know about the VIX trick!

My March/April 2020 TECL purchase of $1,627 is now worth $10,143.

I am definitely not averse to leveraging the Qs.  I've seen it done a lot of ways with options or just the leveraged ETF.  I was really hoping QQQ would get rocked last month.  It won't always go like 2020 but the risk-reward is very acceptable after a hard dip.  A dip that would likely trigger Mikes trade.

[NilesMike]

I may need to apply caution to the strategy. I just looked back and used QQQ for an out of sample backtest. Not that good. Maybe I just got lucky?

[ken-do-nim]

Even if you don't use the VIX trick and just buy-and-hold, these leveraged ETFs are top performers.

This website has up-to-date numbers: https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-5-year-returns/

As of today, the ETF winners of the last 5 years are:
1. SOXL, 1423% return
2. TECL, 1327% return
3. TQQQ, 1267% return

It would be interesting to see what the figures are like using the VIX trick.

Note that FAS has moved up to 13th. It will be interesting to see what it does throughout the rest of the year.

And by the way, these numbers are small potatoes compared to Tesla, up 2063% in the past 5 years. Or even better, Shopify, up 3,321% in the past 5 years.

[fenders53]

They are amazing during the best five year tech run ever.  Several of them would have been liquidated in the early 2000s.  That would be the rub for an investor.

[ken-do-nim]

(10-20-2021, 08:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: They are amazing during the best five year tech run ever.  Several of them would have been liquidated in the early 2000s.  That would be the rub for an investor.

Yeah, that's why when someone backtested over 30 years what the top triple-leveraged fund would be, CURE came out on top, followed by DFEN.

[fenders53]

(10-20-2021, 08:23 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(10-20-2021, 08:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: They are amazing during the best five year tech run ever.  Several of them would have been liquidated in the early 2000s.  That would be the rub for an investor.

Yeah, that's why when someone backtested over 30 years what the top triple-leveraged fund would be, CURE came out on top, followed by DFEN.

Generally speaking would just have to be in a mix of sectors and you would need the good sense to not ride them to a ridiculous loss.  You might get by with it it for a decade or get destroyed twice like the 2000s.  It absolutely wouldn't have worked in my investing lifetime.  This has been a special 10 years.

[fenders53]

And Mike's VIX trick is going to bring you in after a sharp dip and you will miss the initial beating.  VIX 30 is generally a scared market.  We stay below 20 for extended periods of time.  DOW down 500 won't get you there.  It will be one of those times when you vow not to look at your port. 

[fenders53]

Mike,

SBLK has real potential. I'd recommend you read the last conference call. It's following the same script as the fuel haulers did right after oil crashed. Make money and then give it all back 2X if you hold too long. These companies languish for many years like a commodity stock in a down cycle. I thought about this six months ago but was unfamiliar with sector.

After you give the CC a read your opinions on the following please....

Management is transparent, some of the analysts are skilled and asked the right hard questions IMO.

Dividend is huge, they pay from a formula. Next ex-div is DEC 9 IIRC, I see no reason the next div won't be very good as well. Dividend is large enough to consider in the near-term risk reward. hard to imagine this stock isn't running into the ex-dv.

Pay attention to their recent per ship operating costs vs current revenue. They just hedged some of 2022 work (38% of fleet?) and the price looks favorable.

It appears their primary hauls are jet fuel, grain and coal. Maybe there is more but you aren't flipping purpose built ships between those commodities. I hate it when my corn flakes taste like jet fuel or coal.

I got the impression China vs Australia conflict is relevant to them. (Coal imports) which has been in the news a month ago.

Analyst upside price target is +16 from here so I will cut that in half. The stock has already run hard as it should have.

Company is paying off their near-term debt. It was 8% interest so you know what that means. They are also buyig back shares ow after a huge run up. That helps keeps a floor under the stock for us now but it's insanely stupid instead of waiting until next year after the stock gets halved or worse.

I see this as no different than entering a commodity mid cycle. Better be ready to hedge it fast or you will ride it down with little warning. The company can hedge all they want but the market will throw the baby out with the bathwater when sentiment turns on the sector.

I'll re-read the earnings call more thoroughly today.